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Abstract by the author: To achieve the targets of climate change policy, it is important not only to enhance concerns about climate change but also to promote climate-friendly behaviour. Encompassing European Union (EU) countries, the objective of this paper was to analyse how economic development and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions contributed to climate change concerns, personal responsibility, and actions related to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, considering that actions related to climate change mitigation have different costs and benefits, in this study, we aimed to reveal whether climate change concerns and personal responsibility equally influenced all actions related to climate change mitigation and whether all types of actions were guided by the same goals. The results showed that the performance of actions related to climate change mitigation varied across European countries. The largest share of respondents declared that they reduce waste and regularly separate it for recycling. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people noted that they perform very high-cost actions such as the purchase of low-energy homes and electric cars. Economic development level significantly affects the assumption of personal responsibility and the number of actions related to climate change mitigation but not climate change concerns. Hofstede’s cultural dimensions influence climate change concerns, responsibility, and the number of actions differently. Considering separate actions related to climate change mitigation, the assumption of personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced almost all actions. Climate change concerns positively and significantly affected only low-cost actions. Because of the different costs and guiding goals, the respondents who performed one action did not necessarily perform other actions related to climate change mitigation.
Abstract by the author: To achieve the targets of climate change policy, it is important not only to enhance concerns about climate change but also to promote climate-friendly behaviour. Encompassing European Union (EU) countries, the objective of this paper was to analyse how economic development and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions contributed to climate change concerns, personal responsibility, and actions related to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, considering that actions related to climate change mitigation have different costs and benefits, in this study, we aimed to reveal whether climate change concerns and personal responsibility equally influenced all actions related to climate change mitigation and whether all types of actions were guided by the same goals. The results showed that the performance of actions related to climate change mitigation varied across European countries. The largest share of respondents declared that they reduce waste and regularly separate it for recycling. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people noted that they perform very high-cost actions such as the purchase of low-energy homes and electric cars. Economic development level significantly affects the assumption of personal responsibility and the number of actions related to climate change mitigation but not climate change concerns. Hofstede’s cultural dimensions influence climate change concerns, responsibility, and the number of actions differently. Considering separate actions related to climate change mitigation, the assumption of personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced almost all actions. Climate change concerns positively and significantly affected only low-cost actions. Because of the different costs and guiding goals, the respondents who performed one action did not necessarily perform other actions related to climate change mitigation.
Abstract by the authors: To achieve the targets of climate change policy, it is important not only to enhance concerns about climate change but also to promote climate-friendly behaviour. Encompassing European Union (EU) countries, the objective of this paper was to analyse how economic development and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions contributed to climate change concerns, personal responsibility, and actions related to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, considering that actions related to climate change mitigation have different costs and benefits, in this study, we aimed to reveal whether climate change concerns and personal responsibility equally influenced all actions related to climate change mitigation and whether all types of actions were guided by the same goals. The results showed that the performance of actions related to climate change mitigation varied across European countries. The largest share of respondents declared that they reduce waste and regularly separate it for recycling. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people noted that they perform very high-cost actions such as the purchase of low-energy homes and electric cars. Economic development level significantly affects the assumption of personal responsibility and the number of actions related to climate change mitigation but not climate change concerns. Hofstede’s cultural dimensions influence climate change concerns, responsibility, and the number of actions differently. Considering separate actions related to climate change mitigation, the assumption of personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced almost all actions. Climate change concerns positively and significantly affected only low-cost actions. Because of the different costs and guiding goals, the respondents who performed one action did not necessarily perform other actions related to climate change mitigation.
Abstract by the authors: The climate-neutral economy is today, more than ever, the priority issue for all governmental and non-governmental bodies, directly and indirectly involved in the ambitious and responsible process of society’s transition to the green economy. To be or not to be sustainable today is no longer an option, but an urgent necessity. Based on these considerations, our research aims to add to the knowledge on the digital performance of the Member States in the context of the transition to a climate neutral economy, by analyzing the mutations that have occurred in the digital performance of the EU countries in the period 2015–2020, as well as forecasting developments for the year 2025. In order to obtain a relevant result, we used the components of the DESI index, published by the European Commission, and the variables were processed through hierarchical cluster analysis. The results demonstrate that, around the core formed in 2015 by four high digitally performing countries from the North of Europe in 2015, other countries have gradually clustered, so that in 2025 we estimate that a number of eight Member States will be part of the group of the most digitally performing countries. These countries are decisively committed to the transition towards a climate-neutral economy, their initiatives and examples of good practice can be taken up by all European and non-European countries pursuing the same objectives of sustainable development.
Abstract by the authors: Climate-change impacts on offshore wind resources in Northern Europe over the 21st century are investigated based on the most up-to-date narratives of societal development and land use, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three scenarios are considered: a high-emissions (pessimistic) scenario, SSP5-8.5; an intermediate scenario, SSP2-4.5, in which current emissions do not vary notably; and, for the first time in this type of work, a low-emissions (optimistic) scenario, SSP1-1.9, representing the fulfilment of the ambitious goals of the EU's Green Deal and the Paris Agreement. A multi-model ensemble is constructed with the global climate models that are found to best reproduce the wind climate in Northern Europe. The results anticipate an overall decline in wind power density, especially in the high-emissions scenario and in certain regions (up to 30% off Western Ireland), which should be taken into account in planning future offshore wind deployments. As an exception, slight increases (around 10%) are projected in certain areas of the Baltic Sea. The general decline is less pronounced in the low-emissions scenario. Indeed, the results prove that reducing emissions as advocated by current climate objectives would not only weaken the declining trend but also lead to a more stable resource.
Abstract by the authors: To achieve the targets of climate change policy, it is important not only to enhance concerns about climate change but also to promote climate-friendly behaviour. Encompassing European Union (EU) countries, the objective of this paper was to analyse how economic development and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions contributed to climate change concerns, personal responsibility, and actions related to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, considering that actions related to climate change mitigation have different costs and benefits, in this study, we aimed to reveal whether climate change concerns and personal responsibility equally influenced all actions related to climate change mitigation and whether all types of actions were guided by the same goals. The results showed that the performance of actions related to climate change mitigation varied across European countries. The largest share of respondents declared that they reduce waste and regularly separate it for recycling. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people noted that they perform very high-cost actions such as the purchase of low-energy homes and electric cars. Economic development level significantly affects the assumption of personal responsibility and the number of actions related to climate change mitigation but not climate change concerns. Hofstede’s cultural dimensions influence climate change concerns, responsibility, and the number of actions differently. Considering separate actions related to climate change mitigation, the assumption of personal responsibility significantly and positively influenced almost all actions. Climate change concerns positively and significantly affected only low-cost actions. Because of the different costs and guiding goals, the respondents who performed one action did not necessarily perform other actions related to climate change mitigation.
Abstract by the author: The incrementalism of carbon pricing, which includes carbon taxes and emissions trading, has led us astray. It has been proffered as a key component of climate policy, yet evidence clearly shows that its effects are marginal. It provides limited emissions reductions and has provoked considerable political controversy in key large‐emitting countries. More importantly, pricing carbon means viewing climate change as a market failure, rather than as a problem of societal transformation. But rapid decarbonization will require more than market corrections; it demands strong state intervention to reorganize the economy. In this maximalist view, the state must create public goods, rather than merely prevent public bads. This article seeks to expand our collective political imagination about climate policy, moving beyond mundane fights about the appropriate design of carbon pricing. Instead, we need to think bigger. Aggressive climate policy begins with a reassertion of state sovereignty. Multinational corporations use ‘offshore’ tax havens to avoid paying taxes. By closing loopholes on corporate tax evasion, states reaffirm one of their fundamental functions: taxation. This reform would repatriate billions of dollars in missing capital, and help create the political conditions for meaningful action on decarbonization. Tax reform, not just carbon pricing, is climate policy too.
Abstract by the authors: Insights into subnational environmental impacts and the underlying drivers are scarce, especially from a consumption‐based perspective. Here, we quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land‐based biodiversity losses associated with final consumption in 162 regions in the European Union in 2010. For this purpose, we developed an environmentally extended multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) model with subnational European information on demand, production, and trade structures subdivided into 18 major economic sectors, while accounting for trade outside Europe. We employed subnational data on land use and national data on GHG emissions. Our results revealed within‐country differences in per capita GHG and land‐based biodiversity footprints up to factors of 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, indicating that national footprints may mask considerable subnational variability. The per capita GHG footprint increased with per capita income and income equality, whereas we did not find such responses for the per capita land‐based biodiversity footprint, reflecting that extra income is primarily spent on energy‐intensive activities. Yet, we found a shift from the domestic to the foreign part of the biodiversity footprints with rising population density and income. Because our analysis showed that most regions are already net importers of GHG emissions and biodiversity losses, we conclude that it is increasingly important to address the role of trade in national and regional policies on mitigating GHG emissions and averting further biodiversity losses, both within and outside the region itself. To further increase the policy relevance of subnational footprint analyses, we also recommend the compilation of more detailed subnational MRIO databases including harmonized environmental data.
Abstract by the authors: The ongoing global climate change is challenging all sectors, forestry notwithstanding. On the one hand, forest ecosystems are exposed to and threatened by climate change, but on the other hand, forests can influence the course of climate change by regulating the water regime, air quality, carbon sequestration, and even reduce climate extremes. Therefore, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk causing forest disturbances and economic consequences but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management, conservation, and silviculture based on the results of long-term research. We reviewed 365 studies evaluating the impact of climate change on European forest ecosystems, all published during the last 30 years (1993–2022). The most significant consequences of climate change include more frequent and destructive large-scale forest disturbances (wildfire, windstorm, drought, flood, bark beetle, root rot), and tree species migration. Species distribution shifts and changes in tree growth rate have substantial effects on ecosystem carbon storage. Diameter/volume increment changed from −1 to +99% in Central and Northern Europe, while it decreased from −12 to −49% in Southern Europe across tree species over the last ca. 50 years. However, it is important to sharply focus on the causes of climate change and subsequently, on adaptive strategies, which can successfully include the creation of species-diverse, spatially and age-wise structured stands (decrease drought stress and increase production), prolongation of the regenerative period, or the use of suitable introduced tree species (e.g., Douglas fir, black pine, and Mediterranean oaks). But the desired changes are based on increasing diversity and the mitigation of climate change, and will require significantly higher initial costs for silviculture practices. In conclusion, the scope and complexity of the topic require further comprehensive and long-term studies focusing on international cooperation. We see a critical gap in the transfer of research results into actual forest practice, which will be the key factor influencing afforestation of forest stands and forest growth in the following decades. What our forests will look like for future generations and what the resulting impact of climate change will be on forestry is in the hands of forest managers, depending on supportive forestry research and climate change policy, including adaptive and mitigation strategies.
Abstract by the authors: Most large scale studies assessing climate change impacts on crops are performed with simulations of single crops and with annual re-initialization of the initial soil conditions. This is in contrast to the reality that crops are grown in rotations, often with sizable proportion of the preceding crop residue to be left in the fields and varying soil initial conditions from year to year. In this study, the sensitivity of climate change impacts on crop yield and soil organic carbon to assumptions about annual model re-initialization, specification of crop rotations and the amount of residue retained in fields was assessed for seven main crops across Europe. Simulations were conducted for a scenario period 2040–2065 relative to a baseline from 1980 to 2005 using the SIMPLACE1 modeling framework. Results indicated across Europe positive climate change impacts on yield for C3 crops and negative impacts for maize. The consideration of simulating rotations did not have a benefit on yield variability but on relative yield change in response to climate change which slightly increased for C3 crops and decreased for C4 crops when rotation was considered. Soil organic carbon decreased under climate change in both simulations assuming a continuous monocrop and plausible rotations by between 1% and 2% depending on the residue management strategy.
Abstract by the author: The impact of climate change on weather pattern dynamics over the North Atlantic is explored through the lens of the information theory of forced dissipative dynamical systems. The predictability problem is first tackled by investigating the evolution of block entropies on observational time series of weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which reveals that predictability is increasing as a function of time in the observations during the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, while the trend is reversed at the end of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st century. This feature is also investigated in the 15-member ensemble of the UK Met Office CMIP5 model for the 20th and 21st centuries under two climate change scenarios, revealing a wide range of possible evolutions depending on the realization considered, with an overall decrease in predictability in the 21st century for both scenarios. Lower bounds of the information entropy production are also extracted, providing information on the degree of time asymmetry and irreversibility of the dynamics. The analysis of the UK Met Office model runs suggests that the information entropy production will increase by the end of the 21st century, by a factor of 10 % in the Representative Carbon Pathway RCP2.6 scenario and a factor of 30 %–40 % in the RCP8.5 one, as compared to the beginning of the 20th century. This allows one to make the conjecture that the degree of irreversibility is increasing, and hence heat production and dissipation will also increase under climate change, corroborating earlier findings based on the analysis of the thermodynamic entropy production.
Abstract by the authors: Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation.
Abstract by the authors: The early summer of 2021 was a season of extremes across Europe. Heatwaves, droughts and wildfires hit Eastern Europe and the Baltic, while repeated extreme precipitation in Western Europe culminated in massive floods in mid-July. The large-scale circulation during this period was remarkably persistent, with an extremely meridionally amplified flow over Europe. Recurrent blocking over the Baltic and Rossby wave breaking in the North Atlantic led to frequent heavy precipitation in Western Europe and the Black Sea and to warm and dry conditions over Eastern Europe. These conditions persisted for a month as the blocks and wave breaking episodes strengthened one another, while three closely spaced extratropical transitions of tropical cyclones in the eastern North Atlantic led to recurrent amplification of the jet. Seasonal anomalies thus emerge from the complex interactions of individual weather events, offering an interesting storyline for climate impact assessment and a formidable challenge for (sub-) seasonal prediction.
Abstract by the authors: In the aftermath of observed extreme weather events, questions arise on the role of climate change in such events and what future events might look like. We present a method for the development of physical storylines of future events comparable to a chosen observed event, to answer some of these questions. A storyline approach, focusing on physical processes and plausibility rather than probability, improves risk awareness through its relation with our memory of the observed event and contributes to decision making processes through their user focus. The method is showcased by means of a proof-of-concept for the 2018 drought in western Europe. We create analogues of the observed event based on large ensemble climate model simulations representing 2 °C and 3 °C global warming scenarios, and discuss how event severity, event drivers and physical processes are influenced by climate change. We show that future Rhine basin meteorological summer droughts like 2018 will be more severe. Decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration, caused by higher temperatures and increased incoming solar radiation, lead to higher precipitation deficits and lower plant available soil moisture. Possibly, changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to increased spring drought, amplifying the most severe summer drought events. The spatial extent of the most severe drought impacts increases substantially. The noted changes can partly be explained by changes in mean climate, but for many variables, changes in the relative event severity on top of these mean changes contribute as well.
Abstract by the authors: Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21 century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.
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