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Abstract by the authors: Due to climate change, the frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, cold waves, storms, heavy precipitation causing wildfires, floods, and droughts are increasing, which could adversely affect human health. The purpose of this systematic review is therefore to assess the current literature about the association between these extreme weather events and their impact on the health of the European population.
Abstract by the authors: The early summer of 2021 was a season of extremes across Europe. Heatwaves, droughts and wildfires hit Eastern Europe and the Baltic, while repeated extreme precipitation in Western Europe culminated in massive floods in mid-July. The large-scale circulation during this period was remarkably persistent, with an extremely meridionally amplified flow over Europe. Recurrent blocking over the Baltic and Rossby wave breaking in the North Atlantic led to frequent heavy precipitation in Western Europe and the Black Sea and to warm and dry conditions over Eastern Europe. These conditions persisted for a month as the blocks and wave breaking episodes strengthened one another, while three closely spaced extratropical transitions of tropical cyclones in the eastern North Atlantic led to recurrent amplification of the jet. Seasonal anomalies thus emerge from the complex interactions of individual weather events, offering an interesting storyline for climate impact assessment and a formidable challenge for (sub-) seasonal prediction.
Abstract by the authors: We have analyzed the record-breaking drought that affected western and central Europe from July 2016 to June 2017. It caused widespread impacts on water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric power production, and was associated with forest fires in Iberia. Unlike common continental-scale droughts, this event displayed a highly unusual spatial pattern affecting both northern and southern European regions. Drought conditions were observed over 90% of central-western Europe, hitting record-breaking values (with respect to 1979–2017) in 25% of the area. Therefore, the event can be considered as the most severe European drought at the continental scale since at least 1979. The main dynamical forcing of the drought was the consecutive occurrence of blocking and subtropical ridges, sometimes displaced from their typical locations. This led to latitudinal shifts of the jet stream and record-breaking positive geopotential height anomalies over most of the continent. The reduction in moisture transport from the Atlantic was relevant in the northern part of the region, where decreased precipitation and increased sunshine duration were the main contributors to the drought. On the other hand, thermodynamic processes, mostly associated with high temperatures and the resulting increase in atmospheric evaporative demand, were more important in the south. Finally, using flow circulation analogs we show that this drought was more severe than it would have been in the early past.
Abstract by the authors: In the aftermath of observed extreme weather events, questions arise on the role of climate change in such events and what future events might look like. We present a method for the development of physical storylines of future events comparable to a chosen observed event, to answer some of these questions. A storyline approach, focusing on physical processes and plausibility rather than probability, improves risk awareness through its relation with our memory of the observed event and contributes to decision making processes through their user focus. The method is showcased by means of a proof-of-concept for the 2018 drought in western Europe. We create analogues of the observed event based on large ensemble climate model simulations representing 2 °C and 3 °C global warming scenarios, and discuss how event severity, event drivers and physical processes are influenced by climate change. We show that future Rhine basin meteorological summer droughts like 2018 will be more severe. Decreased precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration, caused by higher temperatures and increased incoming solar radiation, lead to higher precipitation deficits and lower plant available soil moisture. Possibly, changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to increased spring drought, amplifying the most severe summer drought events. The spatial extent of the most severe drought impacts increases substantially. The noted changes can partly be explained by changes in mean climate, but for many variables, changes in the relative event severity on top of these mean changes contribute as well.
Abstract by the authors: This paper presents a novel dataset of regional climate model simulations over Europe that significantly improves our ability to detect changes in weather extremes under low and moderate levels of global warming. This is a unique and physically consistent dataset, as it is derived from a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. These simulations were driven by two global climate models from the international HAPPI consortium. The set consists of 100×10 -year simulations and 25×10 -year simulations, respectively. These large ensembles allow for regional climate change and weather extremes to be investigated with an improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to previous climate simulations. To demonstrate how adaptation-relevant information can be derived from the HAPPI dataset, changes in four climate indices for periods with 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C global warming are quantified. These indices include number of days per year with daily mean near-surface apparent temperature of >28 ∘C (ATG28); the yearly maximum 5-day sum of precipitation (RX5day); the daily precipitation intensity of the 50-year return period (RI50yr); and the annual consecutive dry days (CDDs). This work shows that even for a small signal in projected global mean temperature, changes of extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated. For temperature-related indices changes in percentiles can also be estimated with high confidence. Such data can form the basis for tailor-made climate information that can aid adaptive measures at policy-relevant scales, indicating potential impacts at low levels of global warming at steps of 0.5 ∘C.
Abstract by the authors: Extreme weather events represent one of the most visible and immediate hazards to society. Many of these types of phenomena are projected to increase in intensity, duration or frequency as the climate warms. Of these extreme winds are among the most damaging historically over Europe yet assessments of their future changes remain fraught with uncertainty. This uncertainty arises due to both the rare nature of extreme wind events and the fact that most model are unable to faithfully represent them. Here we take advantage of a 15 member ensemble of high resolution Euro-CORDEX simulations (12 km) and investigate projected changes in extreme winds using a peaks-over-threshold approach. Additionally we show that – despite lingering model deficiencies and inadequate observational coverage – there is clear added value of the higher resolution simulations over coarser resolution counterparts. Further, the spatial heterogeneity and highly localised nature is well captured. Effects such as orographic interactions, drag due to urban areas, and even individual storm tracks over the oceans are clearly visible. As such future changes also exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. These results emphasise the need for careful case-by-case treatment of extreme wind analysis, especially when done in a climate adaptation or decision making context. However, for more general assessments the picture is more clear with increases in the return period (i.e. more frequent) extreme episodes projected for Northern, Central and Southern Europe throughout the 21st century. While models continue to improve in their representation of extreme winds, improved observational coverage is desperately needed to obtain more robust assessments of extreme winds over Europe and elsewhere.
Abstract by the authors: Since the spring 2018, a large part of Europe has been in the midst of a record-setting drought. Using long-term observations, we demonstrate that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought. Using a suite of climate model simulation outputs, we underpin the role of anthropogenic warming on exacerbating the future risk of such a consecutive drought event. Under the highest Representative Concentration Pathway, (RCP 8.5), we notice a seven-fold increase in the occurrence of the consecutive droughts, with additional 40 ( ± 5 ) million ha of cultivated areas being affected by such droughts, during the second half of the twenty-first century. The occurrence is significantly reduced under low and medium scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), suggesting that an effective mitigation strategy could aid in reducing the risk of future consecutive droughts.
Abstract by the authors: In this publication we aim to relate observed changes in Central European extreme precipitation to the respective large-scale thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Maxima of long-term (1901–2013) daily precipitation records from a densely sampled Central European station network, spanning Austria, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands, are scaled with Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature anomalies. Scaling coefficients are estimated at station level and aggregated to infer a robust regional extreme precipitation – temperature relationship. Across Central Europe, an overall intensification and a positive scaling signal with Northern Hemispheric temperature is detected in annual, summer, and winter single-day to monthly maximum precipitation. Generally, the estimates are consistent also when only considering data after 1950, and the scaling of annual maxima is also significant for all individual countries but Austria. However, scaling magnitudes are found to vary considerably between seasons and subregions. Also, scaling with regional temperature is non-significant, except for winter extreme precipitation.
Abstract by the authors: Record-breaking hot temperatures were observed in many places around the world in 2018, causing heat-related deaths, crop failure, wildfires and infrastructural damages. In Germany, extremely hot temperatures were accompanied by extremely low precipitation, compounding the impacts. Here we investigate spring to autumn temperature and precipitation in Germany over the historical period. We show that since measurements started in 1881, Germany has never experienced as hot and dry conditions during March to November as in 2018. We analyse the rarity of the event and illustrate that estimates of return periods for such compound extreme events are extremely high but very uncertain and strongly depend on the way they are estimated. We further investigate output from an ensemble of climate model simulations (CMIP5). Most climate models represent the distributions of temperature and precipitation in Germany and their dependence relatively well. Statistical projections of the bivariate temperature-precipitation distribution suggests that a growing season such as 2018 will become less likely at warmer global mean temperatures due to slight increases in precipitation. In contrast, climate models project an increasing likelihood of a 2018-like event and much larger uncertainties both for temperature and precipitation at different warming levels. Both observation-based scaling and climate model estimates consistently project that the compound hot and dry conditions in peak summer June–August become more likely. Overall, our results highlight the challenges associated with estimating the rarity of very extreme multivariate events and illustrate how consistent future changes in multivariate extremes can be estimated from observations only.
Abstract by the authors: Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation.
Abstract by the authors: Destructive winter storms cause recurring major damage to physical, biological, human, and managed systems in Central Europe. Therefore, detailed knowledge of their future development in many areas of human life is of great importance for planning strategic management decisions. One feature to characterise the winter storm intensity is the daily maximum gust speed for a 10-yr return period (GS10yr). In this study, the development of GS10yr under the representative concentration pathways RCP45 and RCP85 in the near future (2019–2049), mid future (2044–2074), and far future (2069–2099) was assessed. Gust speed projections were derived from 19 regional climate models (RCM) available from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. The GS10yr estimates were first bias-corrected and then combined with the historical winter storm atlas for Germany (GeWiSA) yielding highly resolved (25 m × 25 m) GS10yr grids. The results which are available on a monthly basis, indicate a significant increase in winter storm-related wind gust intensity in October under RCP45 and in November and December under RCP85 towards the end of the 21st century. The proposed methodology allows the quantification of the uncertainty associated with winter storm projections and the development of climate-sensitive storm damage models.
Abstract by the author: Starke Regengüsse sorgten in Deutschland für Überflutungen und Chaos. Prof. Dr. Helmut Grüning erforscht an der Fachhochschule Münster Möglichkeiten zur Starkregenvorsorge und erklärt im Interview, wie Stadtplanung und Wissenschaft helfen können, der Gefahr vorzubeugen.
Abstract by the authors: Measuring the probability of flood risk is a key issue in the economics of natural disasters. This discipline studies actual and potential effects of natural disasters on the functioning of economic systems. In traditional economic understanding, it is assumed that both the decision making processes and market processes operate within a certain level of access to information. It is also assumed that the effects of certain phenomena are predictable. However, a natural disaster is difficult to predict. It is hard to predict the time of its occurrence, its impact, direct exposure to its effects and finally, its social and economic results. Exposure to a random hazard, combined with the amount of damage resulting from its potential materialization, is called risk. In this study, the authors focus on presenting a method for quantification of the random element of flood risk. We are using measurement data for cross-border areas between Poland and Germany who witnessed a flood of the century in the 1990s. The empirical data illustrate the usefulness and universality of probabilistic quantification methods for flood risk analysis. The analysis of water level is interesting in a much broader context than the hydrological-economic one. In Central Europe, river water level is immediately connected with two other disaster-like phenomena: drought and heavy rainfall. Also, the course of the Oder river is typical for North European Plain. Therefore, the conclusions presented by the authors are universal by nature and describe certain broader phenomena. Employment of methods of probabilistic quantification using extreme values yields very interesting results: flood risk changes dynamically. Five-year period measurements themselves indicate that there are periods of relatively low exposure of the areas to the disaster (with negligible probability 0.02) and periods of disproportionately high risk increase. The risk of exceeding alarm levels and warning levels changes rapidly, reaching as much as 30% in some locations.
Abstract by the authors: This article analyzes recent trends in extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps and compares these trends to changes in the occurrence of the atmospheric influences generating extremes. We consider a high-resolution precipitation dataset of 1 × 1 km for the period 1958–2017. A robust method of trend estimation in extreme precipitation is considered, based on nonstationary extreme value distribution and a homogeneous neighborhood approach. The results show contrasting trends in extreme precipitation depending on the season. In autumn, most of Southern France shows significant increasing trends, with increase in the 20-year return level between 1958 and 2017 as large as its average value over the period, while the Northern French Alps and the Swiss Valais show decreasing extremes. In winter, significant increasing extremes are found in the valleys and medium mountain areas surrounding the Northern French Alps, while the inner French Alps, the Swiss Valais and the Aosta Valley show significant decreasing trends. In the other seasons, the significant trends are mostly negative in the Mediterranean area. Comparing these trends to changes in the occurrence of the atmospheric influences generating extremes shows that part of the significant changes in extremes can be explained by changes in the dominant influences, in particular in the Mediterranean influenced region that shows the most organized trends. In particular, the strong positive trends in extreme precipitation in autumn in Southern France are concomitant with an increase in Mediterranean influence generating extremes.
Abstract by the authors: L’arrivée de la catastrophe nous obligera à changer radicalement nos visions et nos pratiques, entend-on souvent dans la bouche de ceux qui dénoncent le caractère insoutenable de nos dynamiques économiques et sociales. Mais en est-on bien sûr ? Les choses n’apparaissent, en effet, pas si simple, comme le montrent les auteurs. Leur analyse rétrospective des modes de gestion forestiers dans les Pyrénées audoises et les Landes de Gascogne conclut que la sécheresse de 2003 et la tempête Klaus de 2009 qui ont frappé ces deux massifs n’ont pas conduit à leur remise en cause, mais plutôt à une accélération des évolutions des stratégies et des pratiques des propriétaires qui étaient déjà en cours. C’est le cas notamment, dans la forêt landaise, de la mobilisation de la ressource en bois-énergie constituée par les souches, comme l’avaient montré V. Banos et J. Dehez dans un précédent article publié dans NSS (2017, 25, 2).
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