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Abstract by the author: Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
Abstract by the authors: The efficient use of energy contributes to less energy consumption and the reduction of greenhouse gases released to nature, thus improving environmental sustainability. For this reason, many countries pioneered by the developed nations are trying to develop policies for energy efficiency. In this context, the relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions was tested by panel co-integration, panel causality, and FMOLS and DOLS analysis. Given that the study used the datasets of 29 European countries over the period 1995–2016, there result suggests that there is a long-term relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions and that the quantity of greenhouse gas emission decreases as energy efficiency increases. Finally, the robustness and novelty by employing the Emirmahmutoglu & Kose (2011) Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876 approach, the findings illustrated that there is a causal relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions for many European countries. Overall, the current study presents a relevant policy direction for the European bloc countries.
Abstract by the authors: Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the European Union (EU28 We refer to EU28 as communicated by EUROSTAT, including the UK: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/help/faq/brexit (last access: February 2020). As of 1 February 2020, the UK is no longer part of the European Union.). The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarize GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs), with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for the EU28 provide consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC Guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. The largest inconsistencies between EU28 estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity, referred to here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (tiers) used for calculating emissions and removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at 10.5281/zenodo.3662371 (Petrescu et al., 2020).
Abstract by the authors: Insights into subnational environmental impacts and the underlying drivers are scarce, especially from a consumption‐based perspective. Here, we quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land‐based biodiversity losses associated with final consumption in 162 regions in the European Union in 2010. For this purpose, we developed an environmentally extended multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) model with subnational European information on demand, production, and trade structures subdivided into 18 major economic sectors, while accounting for trade outside Europe. We employed subnational data on land use and national data on GHG emissions. Our results revealed within‐country differences in per capita GHG and land‐based biodiversity footprints up to factors of 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, indicating that national footprints may mask considerable subnational variability. The per capita GHG footprint increased with per capita income and income equality, whereas we did not find such responses for the per capita land‐based biodiversity footprint, reflecting that extra income is primarily spent on energy‐intensive activities. Yet, we found a shift from the domestic to the foreign part of the biodiversity footprints with rising population density and income. Because our analysis showed that most regions are already net importers of GHG emissions and biodiversity losses, we conclude that it is increasingly important to address the role of trade in national and regional policies on mitigating GHG emissions and averting further biodiversity losses, both within and outside the region itself. To further increase the policy relevance of subnational footprint analyses, we also recommend the compilation of more detailed subnational MRIO databases including harmonized environmental data.
Abstract by the authors: Decarbonization by the mid-21st century requires strong commitment to greenhouse emission abatement measures, but national emission reduction pledges are made for the medium term. Achieving medium term targets without taking into account the long term can lead to a lock-in effect, binding countries in pathways that cannot lead to strong decarbonization. This paper sheds light in this issue by combining a theoretical approach with real-world engineering and cost data. We develop a constrained optimization model to examine least-cost greenhouse gas emission abatement pathways, taking into account (a) emission reduction objectives for two years: 2030 and 2050; and (b) the potential speed of implementation of each measure, which expresses technical and behavioural inertia in the deployment of a measure. We focus on European countries and economic sectors that are not subject to the EU Emissions Trading System. We derive relationships between 2030 abatement targets of varying ambition and the possibility for a country to achieve a strong 2050 target. We find that more ambitious EU-wide targets have to be set by 2030 so that Europe delivers deep decarbonization by 2050. Moreover, if air pollution costs are taken into account, strong decarbonization by 2050 has lower social costs than less ambitious policies.
Abstract by the authors: Decarbonization by the mid-21st century requires strong commitment to greenhouse emission abatement measures, but national emission reduction pledges are made for the medium term. Achieving medium term targets without taking into account the long term can lead to a lock-in effect, binding countries in pathways that cannot lead to strong decarbonization. This paper sheds light in this issue by combining a theoretical approach with real-world engineering and cost data. We develop a constrained optimization model to examine least-cost greenhouse gas emission abatement pathways, taking into account (a) emission reduction objectives for two years: 2030 and 2050; and (b) the potential speed of implementation of each measure, which expresses technical and behavioural inertia in the deployment of a measure. We focus on European countries and economic sectors that are not subject to the EU Emissions Trading System. We derive relationships between 2030 abatement targets of varying ambition and the possibility for a country to achieve a strong 2050 target. We find that more ambitious EU-wide targets have to be set by 2030 so that Europe delivers deep decarbonization by 2050. Moreover, if air pollution costs are taken into account, strong decarbonization by 2050 has lower social costs than less ambitious policies.
Abstract by the authors: The rapid growth of aviation over the past fifty years has resulted in numerous negative environmental impacts due to the combustion of fossil fuels in aircraft engines. This paper presents the relationship between air transport and GHG emissions. Based on data on the development of aviation, the level of GHG emissions from transport, environmental tax revenues and the amount of GDP per capita in the countries of the European Union, an attempt was made to create a typification that would illustrate the interaction of GHG emissions with air transport, environmental taxes and GDP in the years 2009–2018. The next step to confirm the obtained results was the application of statistical methods: the TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method of linear ordering and the Perkal index. Based on the study findings, the analyzed countries were divided into three groups: the group of innovators, the stable group and the group of students. The analysis revealed the relationship of all three analyzed variables with air transport. The development of the aviation sector leads to a significant increase in GHG emissions from transport, increased revenues from environmental taxes and acceleration of the rate of economic growth of a country.
Abstract by the authors: Wood pellets could potentially contribute to bioenergy demand in the European Union (EU). Market cost constraints as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings thresholds imposed by the European Commission however limit the potential use of pellets. A spatially explicit assessment of import potentials of both pellets and torrefied pellets, based on the growing stock of forestry biomass in the US, Canada, Brazil, Russia and Baltic States, was combined with an analysis of supply chain costs and emissions in order to analyse potentials as limited by different levels of costs and emission constraints. Results show that in case of GHG savings thresholds of 70%, 80% and 85% the total import potential is reduced to 61 to 24 and 1 Mt, respectively. The potential for torrefied pellets is larger in all cases, 44 Mt in the case of an 80% limit. Import potentials at cost limits of 200, 175, 150 and 125 €/t are reduced from 58 Mt to 52, 38 and 9 Mt pellets, respectively, with little difference between pellets and torrefied pellets. This work shows that spatially explicit variation in feedstock availability and logistics has a significant impact on total import potentials and must therefore be included in any assessment of bioenergy potential and trade.
Abstract by the authors: Climate change mitigation will require significant efforts from all emitting sectors, including agriculture. However, agricultural emission reduction measures raise specific concerns, both in respect of their distinct climate outcomes and how their implementation might support or frustrate wider objectives. We highlight some special characteristics regarding agricultural methane emissions. As methane is a relatively short-lived gas, we do not have the same strong physical requirement to completely eliminate net methane emissions as we do for carbon dioxide. An appreciation of the distinct nature and impacts of carbon dioxide and methane can bring nuance to discussions; especially around what different sectors must be expected to achieve, and thus help avoid negative trade-offs that might result from heavy-handed policy interventions. Nevertheless, significant and rapid methane emission reductions do remain important in realistically achieving our overall climate objectives. A number of technical measures to reduce ruminant methane are highlighted, but are not without their own challenges; and we are unlikely to meet climate or other environmental targets without systemic changes to the total food system, including overall consumption patterns. The appropriate policy tools to achieve these changes are emerging as a key, but contested, concern in Europe and beyond, making it vital we work through these arguments in a transparent manner..
Abstract by the authors: We present an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from urban wastewater treatment plants in Europe. We propose a quantification in terms of emission factors (kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) per population equivalent (PE) and year) taking into account all phases of wastewater treatment, from the construction of the infrastructure to the discharge of treated effluents. The assessment includes (1) life-cycle emissions of infrastructure; (2) emissions of dissolved methane in the sewer networks; (3) direct emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from the treatment processes; (4) emissions due to COD and nitrogen in the effluents; (5) indirect emissions due to the generation of electricity and the production of reagents; and (6) emission credits due to energy recovery or biomethane export associated with the anaerobic digestion of sludge. Our estimated emissions range between approximately 50 and 125 kg CO2e/PE/y depending on the type of treatment plant, of which about 20 to 40 are embedded in the infrastructure. We estimate that direct nitrous oxide emissions and indirect electricity emissions are the main contributors in the operation phase, followed by direct methane emissions. By extrapolating these emissions to the ensemble of the European Union's wastewater treatment plants, we estimate a cumulative emission of about 35 million tonnes CO2e/year, of which ca. 14 are due to the infrastructure. We analyse various scenarios to reduce emissions, showing that the efficient use of electricity at the plant and the decarbonisation of electricity would significantly help to improve the CO2e footprint of the WWTPs. In particular, the recovery of methane from biogas and the decarbonisation of electricity may reduce emissions below 27 million tonnes CO2e/year. Extending N removal to the whole territory for all plants above 10,000 PE may contribute to decrease direct nitrous oxide emissions.
Abstract by the authors: The efficient use of energy contributes to less energy consumption and the reduction of greenhouse gases released to nature, thus improving environmental sustainability. For this reason, many countries pioneered by the developed nations are trying to develop policies for energy efficiency. In this context, the relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions was tested by panel co-integration, panel causality, and FMOLS and DOLS analysis. Given that the study used the datasets of 29 European countries over the period 1995–2016, there result suggests that there is a long-term relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions and that the quantity of greenhouse gas emission decreases as energy efficiency increases. Finally, the robustness and novelty by employing the Emirmahmutoglu & Kose (2011) Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876 approach, the findings illustrated that there is a causal relationship between energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions for many European countries. Overall, the current study presents a relevant policy direction for the European bloc countries.
Abstract by the authors:Negative emission technologies will likely be needed to achieve the European Commission's goal of greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. This article investigates the potential of reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere via the DACCS pathway, i.e., to capture CO2 from the ambient air and permanently store it in geological formations. Since the capture of CO2 from ambient air is energy-intensive, this study particularly models the integration of DACCS plants into a greenhouse gas-neutral European energy system. The model results show that DACCS in Europe 2050 could cost between 160 €/tCO2 and 270 €/tCO2 with very conservative techno-economic assumptions and between 60 €/tCO2 and 140 €/tCO2 using more progressive parameters. Annually capturing 5% of Europe's 1990 emissions with a fully electric DACCS system would increase the capacities of onshore wind by 80–119 GWel and PV by 85–126 GWel. In the model results, Sweden, the Iberian Peninsula, Norway, and Finland incorporate the essential characteristics for a successful deployment of capturing and storing CO2 from ambient air: Sufficiently large geological CO2 storage capacities and relatively low-cost, vacant renewable power generation potentials. The low DACCS costs could minimize the cost of combating climate change and prevent the implementation of more expensive mitigation strategies. On the other hand, a DACCS-based climate protection strategy is fraught with the risks of CO2 storage leaks, acceptance problems for the additional required expansion of renewable energies, and premature depletion of global CO2 storage potentials.
Abstract by the authors: We develop an alternative input–output approach and apply it to the determination of key sectors in emissions. This methodology allows us to assess and classify the different productive sectors according to their greenhouse gas emissions and the role that they play in the productive structure, as well as the participation of their output in the total volume of production. In contrast with previous approaches, we do not focus on the responsibility of final demand, but on the responsibility of the total production of each sector. We apply our methodology to the 2014 input–output table for Spain provided by the World Input–Output Database (2016). The results show that the sectors that induce more emissions from other sectors are manufacture of food products, wholesale and retail trade, and construction. Those that are pulled to emit coincide with those that are relevant for their own final demand, being the most important electricity and gas provision, agriculture, and transportation. The classification obtained allows to orient the design of greenhouse gas emission mitigation policies for the different sectors.
Abstract by the author: The rapid growth of negative consequences from climate changes provokes divergent effects in all economic sectors. The experts proved that a core catalyst which bootstrapped the climate changes was greenhouse gas emission. This has led to a range of social, economic, and ecological issues. Such issues could be solved by extending innovation and information technology. This paper aimed to check the hypothesis that innovation and information technology allowed for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The author used such methodology as OLS, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DMOLS), Dicky-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests. The research is informed by the report of the World Economic Forum, World Data Bank, Eurostat for the Visegrád countries (Hungary, Poland, Check Republic, Slovakia) for the period of 2000–2019. The findings were confirmed in models without control variables, and an increase of 1% of patents led to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 0.28% for Poland, 0.28% for Hungary, 0.38% for the Slovak Republic and 0.46% for the Czech Republic. At the same time, for the models with control variables, only Hungary experienced a statistically significant impact. There, an increase of patents by 1% led to reduction of GHG emissions by 0.22%. The variable R&D expenditure was statistically significant for all countries and all types of models (with and without control variables). The increase of R&D expenditure provoked a decline of GHG emissions by 0.29% (without control variables) and 0.11% (with control variables) for Poland, by 0.26% (without control variables) and 0.41% (with control variables) for Hungary, by 0.3% (without control variables) and 0.23% (with control variables) for the Slovak Republic and by 0.54% (without control variables) and 0.38% (with control variables) for the Czech Republic.
Abstract by the authors: El objetivo del estudio fue la caracterización productiva y de emisiones modeladas de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) en 61 sistemas lecheros localizados en cinco regiones de Honduras. Durante las fases inicial (FI) y final (FF), con encuestas aplicadas individualmente a los productores, se identificaron aspectos técnicos y de productividad. Variables numéricas expresadas en Microsoft Excel® permitieron, con el modelo FAO de evaluación ambiental de la ganadería global-interactivo (GLEAM-i, por sus siglas en inglés) de ciclo de vida, estimar emisiones anuales de metano (CH4), óxido nitroso (N2O) y dióxido de carbono (CO2) en cada finca. Cálculos intermedios (GEI/animal) fueron derivados de la modelización GLEAM-i en Excel®. Durante la FI las fincas conjuntamente emitieron 25.038 t CO2 equivalente (CO2-eq), mientras que dichas emisiones fueron 10,5% menores en la FF. Emisiones de GEI/animal (2,85 ± 0,08 t CO2-eq) y de GEI/kg de proteína láctea (96,91 ± 4,50 kg CO2-eq) durante la FI fueron 13 y 21% menores en la FF, respectivamente. Valores de 52,82 ± 1,64 (CH4) y 2,66 ± 0,10 (N2O) kg/animal en la FI fueron 13% y 17% menores en la FF, respectivamente. La región Centro-Sur-Oriente emitió la menor cantidad de CH4 (42,95 ± 2,37 kg/animal) y N2O (1,82 ± 0,15 kg/animal, mientras las regiones Occidente y Norte experimentaron una reducción del 27% en GEI/kg proteína láctea entre la FI y FF. Se concluyó que la metodología usada identificó los impactos productivos y medioambientales, derivados de alternativas técnicas implementadas en sistemas de producción lechera de Honduras.
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