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Selected Online Reading on Arctic Climate Change and Geopolitics

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Selected e-articles

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The European Union (EU) is a unique stakeholder in Arctic affairs. The EU is linked to the Arctic, affecting and affected by regional changes and developments, resulting in a multidimensional nexus of influences, impacts and overlapping agendas and stakeholders. As a global multi-level force and a major promoter of the concept of sustainable development the EU can also be a leader in setting standards for a more sustainable interaction between a major economy and the Arctic region. On the premise that the path towards a more comprehensive and integrated EU Arctic policy should focus on implementing more robust environmental policies in Europe, this paper argues that developing a distinct EU Arctic policy should only be regarded as secondary to building a – predominantly internal – regulatory framework that considers the ongoing changes in the Arctic. This article analyses the EU’s capacity to be a global regulator and to set internal environmental standards with external influence on the Arctic. Specifically, this paper is concerned with the extent to which EU environmental policies and legislations can be regarded as contributing to the promotion of sustainable development in the Arctic with an analyses of the EU’s energy-climate policy complex.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Climate change has turned the Arctic simultaneously into an environmentally highly fragile space and a region offering manifold economic opportunities. The notion of ‘Arctic Paradox’ aptly captures the trade-off between environmental protection needs and economic prospects. We investigate how the European Union has positioned itself regarding this Paradox by asking to what extent its Arctic policy discourse integrates environmental concerns. Analysis involving the main strategies of EU institutions, and the EU’s Arctic and major non-Arctic members finds three co-existing coalitions with differing visions of environmental policy integration in the Arctic. The aggregate EU discourse on the Arctic is currently ‘green by omission’, that is, by explicitly avoiding a clear stance on the trade-off embodied in the ‘Arctic Paradox’. We attempt to explain this, and conclude by discussing the likelihood of the EU developing a genuinely environment-oriented Arctic policy.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Over the last decade(s), the European Union (EU) has established itself as geopolitical actor seeking to actively engage in the spatial ordering of its neighbourhoods. In order to better understand the existing geopolitical nature of the EU, this article addresses the question of the EU’s decade-long endeavour to construct legitimacy in its Northern Neighbourhood; an area often neglected in discussions about the EU’s geopolitical role. By examining its Arctic involvement between 2008 and 2018, this article enquires into the EU’s broader role as an international actor with an evolving geopolitical identity. Over the last decades, the EU has exhibited geopolitical ambitions alongside its own conceptualisation of world order, rule of law and good governance. This article establishes a clearer picture on how the EU as an amalgamation of its various institutions has tried to impose these geopolitical ambitions on a neighbouring region that itself experiences a manifold change in the early twentieth-first century. It gets to the conceptual bottom of what exactly fashioned the European Union with geopolitical agency in the Arctic region – internally and externally. The article is based on a decade of research on the EU as an emerging Arctic actor.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: A Global Green New Deal (GGND)—that includes Arctic sea ice climate triage and carbon cycle climate restoration, and that, following Eisenberger (2020), would move us toward a renewable energy and materials economy (REME)—is necessary to turn our current civilization and species-threatening climate crises into an opportunity to stabilize our planet’s climate and advance to a new, more equitable and prosperous stage of human development. Imminent, potentially catastrophic, global climate impacts of Arctic sea ice loss, the first global climate “tipping point,” are reviewed, and practical and efficient potential climate triage methods for avoiding this are summarized. Longer-term carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture, sequestration, and use (CCSU) methods, that would move us toward long-term carbon cycle climate restoration, are presented. A general reframing of climate policy and specific GGND policy proposals—that include Arctic sea ice climate triage and carbon cycle climate restoration that would rapidly move us toward a REME and avoid increasingly catastrophic climate impacts—are proposed.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: When rain falls on an existing cover of snow, followed by low temperatures, or falls as freezing rain, it can leave a hard crust. These Arctic rain on snow (ROS) events can profoundly influence the environment and in turn, human livelihoods. Impacts can be immediate (e.g. on human travel, herding, or harvesting) or evolve or accumulate, leading to massive starvation-induced die-offs of reindeer, caribou, and musk oxen, for example. We provide here a review and synthesis of Arctic ROS events and their impacts, addressing human-environment relationships, meteorological conditions associated with ROS events, and challenges in their detection. From our assessment of the state of the science, we conclude that while (a) systematic detection of ROS events, their intensity, and trends across the Arctic region can be approached by combining data from satellite remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses, and meteorological station records; (b) obtaining knowledge and information most germane to impacts, such as the thickness of ice layers, how ice layers form within a snowpack, and antecedent conditions that can amplify impacts, necessitates collaboration and knowledge co-production with community members and indigenous knowledge-holders.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Coastal fishery systems in the Arctic are undergoing rapid change. This paper examines the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to such change, using a case study from Pangnirtung, Canada. The work is based on over two years of fieldwork, during which semi-structured interviews (n = 62), focus group discussions (n = 6, 31 participants) and key informant interviews (n = 25) were conducted. The changes that most Inuit fishers experience are: changes in sea-ice conditions, Inuit people themselves, the landscape and the seascape, fish-related changes, and changes in weather conditions, markets and fish selling prices. Inuit fishers respond to change individually as well as collectively. Fishers’ responses were examined using the characteristics of a resilience-based conceptual framework focusing on place, human agency, collective action and collaboration, institutions, indigenous and local knowledge systems, and learning. Based on results, this paper identified three community-level adaptive strategies, which are diversification, technology use and fisheries governance that employs a co-management approach. Further, this work recognised four place-specific attributes that can shape community adaptations, which are Inuit worldviews, Inuit-owned institutions, a culture of sharing and collaborating, and indigenous and local knowledge systems. An examination of the ways in which Inuit fishers experience and respond to change is essential to better understand adaptations to climate change. This study delivers new insights to communities, scientists, and policymakers to work together to foster community adaptation.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: This article focuses on the social representations of permafrost thaw among people who were born in different regions of the Sakha Republic (Russia) and live in the regional capital city of Yakutsk. Our research aims to obtain a better understanding of the new risk patterns associated to permafrost thaw through the collection and subsequent analysis of narratives of personal experiences in order to identify the main concerns, how these are defined and which coping strategies are considered by local inhabitants. Our respondents insightfully characterized the nature of the multiple interrelated processes and associations that they identified. According to locals' grasp, climate change and permafrost thaw's impacts exceed the merely physical and material dimensions, unchaining simultaneous and deep transformations in their culture. More specifically, physical degradation threatens their symbolic representations, the material practices and the emotional ties that they have developed in that specific land. They also expressed the need for potential mitigation strategies at both a regional and local scale.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Climate change poses a grave threat to future generations, yet relatively little research examines children’s understandings of the issue. This study examines the questions children ask about climate change – rather than their answers to adults’ questions – exploring whether their questions suggest they view climate change as psychologically proximal or distant. Children aged 10–12 from 14 UK schools took part in an online event, asking scientists questions in a ‘climate zone’. The questions were analysed using thematic analysis. The themes related to the nature and reality of climate change, its causes, impacts, and solutions. Participants seemed most exercised about the future impacts of and ways of ameliorating climate change, with some questions evoking science-fiction disaster imagery. The contents of participants’ questions elucidated the ways in which they position climate change as both a proximal and distant phenomenon.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Climate change is continuing to impact the social-ecological systems of polar regions. Climate models project substantial warming above the global average and high rates of environmental change in polar regions, but local impacts remain uncertain. These rapid alterations will affect biophysical, economic, and sociocultural conditions. This research aims to uncover early climate change indicators through climate model projections and individuals' perceptions by focusing on a sample of 39 municipalities north of the Arctic Circle in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and northwestern Russia. The study employs an exploratory sequential approach by combining representations of climate model projections in a geographic information system (GIS) with qualitative analysis from semi-structured interviews with local officials involved in planning decisions for each municipality. And, second, the study combined perceptions of early climate change indicators and their subsequent challenges and opportunities with regional climate projections. Results indicate an overall geographic ‘match’ between climate model projections and perceptions, but differences between north-to-south, coast-to-interior, and national perspectives are notable. Some of these differences point to the roles of nationally, regionally, and locally embedded geographies, producing a multitude of lived experiences. The implications of this study are relevant to global communities experiencing varying climate change risk perception from coastal-versus-interior regions.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: This ethnographic study at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) follows a group of scientists and communications specialists as they compose visualizations and analyses of near-real-time Arctic sea ice data. Research participants collectively make scientific judgments about near-real-time data in a highly visible public venue with ‘relational agility’. They balance multiple phenomena including knowledge of how sceptics attack climate science, reflexivity about the conventions through which sea ice data is gathered, the needs of journalists working in a news cycle paced by Twitter, and the liveliness and vitality of sea ice itself. Relational agility, understood as a way of coordinating the social in relation to this plurality of contingent practices and processes, provides insight into the science and politics of nonlinear climate change.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Climate change is producing maritime navigation opportunities in the Arctic. Melting sea ice in the summer months is increasing shipping and other vessel traffic. A well-developed body of literature investigates the viability of the two main shipping routes: the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP). This article explores the impact increased maritime traffic will have on the governance of these routes. Despite lying within the Arctic region, each route has its own geophysical, legal, and political features that will shape the character of its governance regime. The NSR lies within Russia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Although international reconciliation on the level of authority that Russia should have over the NSR is preferable, the route’s future political viability is not at risk as much as the NWP’s. Russia has long exerted, and will continue to exert, control over the NSR in accordance with its established governance system and in the name of environmental stewardship. In contrast, the legal status of the NWP in the Canadian archipelago, currently debated, will continue to be important to resolve as traffic increases. The viability of the NWP rests on international agreement, particularly since the entire route passes through the EEZs of multiple countries – the United States, Canada, and the Kingdom of Denmark. Russia exerts authority over NSR traffic regardless of legal and political contentions, while Canada does not exercise a similar level of control over the NWP due to the ongoing conflict over the legal status of the route.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Successful efforts to address specific needs for governance have given rise to an Arctic Ocean regime complex encompassing a sizable collection of individual elements not related to one another in any hierarchical fashion. The density of this regime complex is likely to increase during the coming years. At the same time, the globalization of the Arctic has altered conditions affecting the complex in ways that require attention. As a result, we argue, a coordination mechanism is needed to ensure the efficacy of this dynamic complex going forward. Following a survey of the evolving seascape of Arctic maritime cooperation, we assess the roles the Arctic Council and other non-state actors are playing in the development and implementation of individual elements of this regime complex. These roles are significant. But these actors lack both the authority and the capacity to coordinate the Arctic Ocean regime complex effectively. The negotiation of an Arctic Ocean Treaty to meet this need is not feasible at this juncture. We conclude that it would be helpful at this time to organize a high-level but informal Arctic Ocean Governance Conference including representatives of a broad selection of stakeholders to explore options for addressing the growing need for coordination of the Arctic Ocean regime complex.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among Arctic States, Indigenous communities and peoples on issues of common importance. The rising geo-political importance of the Arctic and the onset of climate change has resulted in the Council becoming a focus of increasing interest from both inside and beyond the Arctic. This has resulted in new demands placed on the Council, attracted an increasing number of participants and instigated a period of transformation as Arctic states work to find a way to balance conflicting demands for improving the effectiveness of the Council and taking care of national interests. This paper considers if during this time of change the Council is having an impact upon the issues it was formed to address i.e. environmental protection and sustainable development. To provide answers it looks at how the Council operates and through the lens of biodiversity identifies drivers and barriers to the Councils institutional effectiveness; providing an understanding of the norms and rules which constitute the Council and which are central its problem-solving abilities. It is clear that the Council is changing and how it operates is evolving in response to the increasing attention paid to all things Arctic. However, challenges to ensuring effective outcomes from its activities remain and without clear strategies many of the Councils efforts can appear ad-hoc and without due recourse to forward planning. However, when clear and detailed plans are in place to guide the work of the Council as for biodiversity then glimpses can be seen of its potential to act as an agent of change.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Intensive transnational cooperation and manifestations of the NATO-Russia security rivalry have endured for over 30 years in the post-Cold War Arctic. Drawing upon the concept of repertoires from the social movement literature, this article seeks to make a conceptual contribution as to how we might better analyse and articulate the simultaneity of these practices and narratives of cooperation and rivalry in the circumpolar region. Repertoires are typically defined as bundles of semi-structured/semi-improvisational practices making up a context-contingent performance (for example, by civil society towards the ‘state’). These repertoires are argued to be created and performed in ‘contentious episodes’, rather than structured by long-term trends or evidenced in single events. Translated to global politics, a repertoires-inspired approach holds promise for privileging an analysis of the tools and performance (and audience) of statecraft in ‘contentious episodes’ above considerations of how different forms of global order or geopolitical narratives structure options for state actors. The emphasis on the performance of statecraft in key episodes, in turn, allows us to consider whether the interplay between the practices of cooperation and rivalry is usefully understood as a collective repertoire of statecraft, as opposed to a messy output of disparate long-term trends ultimately directing actors in the region towards a more cooperative or more competitive form of Arctic regional order. The article opens with two key moments in Arctic politics – the breakup of the Soviet Union and the 2007 Arctic sea ice low. The strong scholarly baseline that these complex moments have garnered illustrates how scholars of Arctic regional politics are already employing an episodic perspective that can be usefully expanded upon and anchored with insights and methods loaned from social movement literature on repertoires. The 18-month period following Russia's annexation of Crimea is then examined in detail as a ‘contentious episode’ with an attending effort to operationalize a repertoires-inspired approach to global politics. The article concludes that a repertoire-inspired approach facilitates systematic consideration of the mixed practices of amity and enmity in circumpolar statecraft over time and comparison to other regions, as well as offers one promising answer to the growing interest in translating the insights of constructivist scholarship into foreign policy strategy.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The article focuses on the essentiality of consideration of climate change as a threat to national security for the United States. Topics include the changing definition of threats, the failing of the U.S. defense budget to adequately address the costs of climate change, and developing new approaches towards a changing Arctic.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The Arctic is changing. Facing challenges driven by resource demands, changing power relations and climate change, the top of the world demands the attention of European states and EU officials. This paper examines the main geopolitical issues in the Arctic, such as the development of the region’s energy resources, the underlying potential for conflict and the increasing presence of China in the region. It argues that to unpack the region’s complexities, we need to recognise the diversity within the Arctic across a range of issues and to differentiate different levels of analysis: the international and the regional. Furthermore, this paper argues that the EU’s approach to the north suffers as a result of a general deficiency in EU external policies, namely incoherence and a multitude of voices and opinions. To have a more effective Arctic policy, the EU needs to distinguish between the different levels outlined here, raise awareness of the issues facing the Arctic among its member states and politicians, and better communicate the relevance of the Union to Arctic states. The EU must view the Arctic primarily as a long-term strategic priority and as an area of growing geopolitical importance.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Utilizing scholarship on legitimation, tactical innovation, and blunders, this paper examines the dynamics by which Greenpeace tried to gain legitimacy and delegitimize Shell in the conflict over Arctic drilling. Content analysis of news media mentions found that the vast majority of Greenpeace frames centered on the ethical concerns surrounding Arctic drilling, mainly potential consequences such as oil spills and climate change. In contrast, Shell’s efforts to delegitimize Greenpeace were limited and more evenly distributed between scientific claims about the safety of drilling in the Arctic, economic opportunities such as jobs created, and ethical claims about Greenpeace threatening the safety of Shell crews. The tactically innovative use of celebrity endorsements by Greenpeace was particularly influential for mobilizing and gaining news attention when combined with occupations. Viral videos gained little news media attention, yet helped mobilize Greenpeace support when they featured a celebrity. In response, Shell tactics overwhelmingly involved litigation against Greenpeace which had some success in neutralizing the occupation tactic. Blunders by Shell amplified resonance of Greenpeace delegitimation frames, ultimately contributing to Shell ceasing their Arctic drilling operations in 2013.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Global climate change's continuing effect on the Arctic has brought about a fundamental shift in the region's identity as it becomes an ever more active area in the world-system. Economic opportunities such as new shipping routes and a bounty of natural resources that were hitherto ice-locked are becoming accessible as the pace of climate change quickens, garnering increasing attention from actors around the world-system. This article explores the new geopolitical and economic realities of the Arctic through the lens of world-system analysis by examining the region's budding role in the world-economy and emerging economic opportunities, its unique coreperipheral nature, and its potential to spark a regional hegemonic rivalry between NATO and a Sino-Russian partnership. This article aims introduce the evolving Arctic to world-systems studies and promote further research on the region using the theoretical framework.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The Arctic currently holds a prominent place in global policy. It is a sparsely populated region experiencing major consequences of global change, such as climate change, shifting demographics, and globalization. These substantial and rapid changes create both opportunities and risks for economic development. Informed policy-making for sustainable development in the Arctic will require an understanding of the specific structures of arctic economies, with a focus on the existence of mixed economies that contain both subsistence and market aspects, the interplay among different economic systems, and the broader contexts in which they function. This paper presents a conceptual framework that allows for comparative analysis of arctic economies within their institutional, social, cultural, and environmental contexts. Utilization of the conceptual framework will enable more complete system-level analyses by helping to describe the complex relationships among apparently disparate parts of the Arctic's diverse economic systems. The framework can be used across the social and natural sciences, practice, and policy-making. Furthermore, this framework is applicable to regions outside of the Arctic that also have distinct mixed subsistence and market economies.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The article reports that with regard to mining, the Arctic has its share of minerals, from lead and zinc to gold and diamonds. The Arctic is an expensive place to operate a mine. Greenland seeks to develop its mineral wealth as a path to financial independence, from which political independence may follow.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: In this paper, we examine the centrality of policy actors and moral justifications in media debates on Arctic climate change in Finland and Canada from 2011–2015. We take a network approach on the media debates by analysing relations between the actors and justifications, using discourse network analysis on a dataset of 745 statements from four newspapers. We find that in both countries, governments and universities are the most central actors, whereas business actors are the least central. Justifications that value environmental sustainability and scientific knowledge are most central and used across actor types. However, ecological justifications are sometimes in conflict with market justifications. Government actors emphasize new economic possibilities in the Arctic whereas environmental organizations demand greater protection of the vulnerable Arctic. Ecological justifications and justifications that value international cooperation are more central in the Finnish debate, whereas justifications valuing sustainability and science, as well as those valuing national sovereignty, are more central in the Canadian debate. We conclude that in addition to the centrality of specific policy actors in media debates, the use of different types of moral justifications also reflects political power in the media sphere.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: China's release of a White Paper to document its Arctic Policy in 2018 has attracted widespread academic and popular commentaries. In particular, Beijing's ambition to build a “Polar Silk Road” (冰上丝绸之路) in the Arctic so as to link Asia and Europe via logistic and transportation networks have garnered intense ‘external’ speculations about whether China is using the initiative to gain geopolitical power and domination in the region. This paper however focuses on the under-researched dimension of how the idea of the Polar Silk Road is understood, debated and portrayed in the Chinese scholarly community. Specifically, by hinging on the conceptual and methodological tenets offered by framing theory, I seek to critically examine the representational themes and tropes that are mobilized by Chinese scholars in their discussions of the Polar Silk Road amidst China's increasing forays into the Arctic. Indeed, I argue that Chinese academic discourses about the Polar Silk Road evoke positive frames broaching a diversity of concerns (economic, environmental, diplomatic and so on) to not only justify but also defend China's ongoing interests and interventions in the Arctic region. By engaging in this study, this paper responds to critical geopolitics' call to pay nuanced attention to under-represented ‘non-Western’ geopolitical ideas, philosophies and traditions. Moreover, given the claim that the academic and foreign policy realms in China are intertwined in intimate and complex ways, the viewpoints of Chinese scholars thus becomes critical and relevant to understand insofar as they help to signal to the possible future developmental trajectories of China's approach in the Arctic (and beyond).

Abstract provided by author/publisher: Climate induced geo-physical transformations occurring in the Arctic are also attributing to geopolitical transformations of the region. Opening up of the Arctic is resulting in a geopolitical race amongst the Arctic and non-Arctic states to dominate emerging economic and strategic opportunities in the region. Transformations in the Arctic assume global links and possess a potential of significantly impacting the Arctic as well as the Asian states. China’s assertiveness to become a Polar Great Power has set a course for new Asian perceptions towards the region. In pursuits of its economic, environmental, scientific, social and strategic endeavours, China is making significant inroads in the region to meet its short and long-term objectives. This paper makes an attempt to reconsider India’s approach towards the Arctic not by taking China as a benchmark, but rather as a useful backdrop to broaden and deepen India’s engagements in the circumpolar north.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The rapidly transforming Arctic has led to rethink the concept of security in the region. The increasing global warming and opening up of the Arctic have brought multiple geopolitical issues before the Arctic and non-Arctic states.1 In pursuit of their perceived geopolitical, geo-economics and strategic interests, a race to ‘securitise the Arctic’ has started amongst the major Arctic states. This process of securitisation appears to be dictated and driven not only by traditional military-strategic considerations but also by non-traditional security threat dilemmas related to energy, environment, sustainability, human security, connectivity, etc. As the old and the new Arctic challenges are being taken out of the realm of ‘normal politics’ and placed in the contested domain of ‘security politics’, the Asian states, that are directly or indirectly impacted by the changing Arctic, realise that securitisation of the Arctic is leaving little space for addressing common issues of global concern. This study argues that all these emerging issues (otherwise perceived as ‘security threats’) in the Arctic, instead of being addressed in the securitisation framework, could and should be approached and addressed as compelling reasons for mutual cooperation and thus in need of de-securitisation.

Abstract provided by author/publisher: The article develops a geopoetic approach to Russian Arctic politics. It rests on the empirical observation that due to climate change, the Arctic landscape is undergoing profound transformations, which has led to multilateral governance efforts but also unilateral pursuits. In this general heterogeneity, Russia’s policies have raised the most pressing questions regarding the country’s motivations to engage in the region. Cultural approaches to global politics are most suitable to create holistic understandings and explanations in this regard, but they lack discussing a spatial dimension of Russian identity. By developing a geopoetic account, the article complements this research through methodological insights from critical geography. Geopoetics focuses on the cultural roots and their cognitive-emotional dimension, on the basis of which claims to the Arctic and related policies resonate with a broader audience. The article argues that Russian policies have their foundation in a utopian ideal of Soviet socialist realism that was widely popularised in the 1920s and later decades. Applying the hermeneutic tool of topos, the article highlights that three features stand out that interweave into a coherent imaginary of the Arctic: first, the heroic explorer; second, the conquest of nature; and third, the role of science and technology. Analysts would do well to bear in mind how the Arctic becomes intelligible when commenting on policies.

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