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Extreme Weather Events

Selected e-articles

Abstract: Climate change is expected to significantly alter hydrological regimes globally as well as locally. The impacts will encompass both long‐term changes in hydrological trends and short‐term extreme weather events. The need to anticipate and adapt to future changes will challenge legal rules and institutions, as these are bound to the past. This article analyses whether water law at international, EU and national (Finland) levels can deal with these hydrological changes. To this end, the analysis draws on a case study of the Finnish‐Russian transboundary Vuoksi River. We discuss the main substantive and procedural challenges of water law and outline some necessary legal changes. Our analysis shows that while water law at these levels includes some legal mechanisms for managing varying hydrological circumstances, these will prove insufficient in the light of the scale of anticipated hydrological changes.

Abstract:  “Natural” disasters" have negative consequences for the affected areas, including significant economic impacts. Using a sample of European NUTS-3 regions over the period 2003–17, this paper examines the impact of disasters on regional economic growth and the influence of the quality of regional governance on post-disaster economic recovery. We match disaster data from the EM-DAT database, EUROSTAT, US Geological Surveys and Global Archive of Large Floods. We find that the occurrence of a “natural” disaster leads to an annual decline in regional growth of about 0.28 percentage points. Furthermore, we find that both the impact on the economy and the duration of recovery are influenced by the quality of regional institutions.

Abstract: Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies. By using network analysis, the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe, even though they are geographically far away from each other. By further composite analysis, this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe, typically with a time lag of 3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave events. An eastward propagating atmospheric wave train, known as the circum-global teleconnection (CGT) pattern, bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote regions. Atmospheric blockings, amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe, not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low pressures. Subsequent downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation, thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East Asia. Nearly half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave events. This investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.

Abstract: Global warming disrupts weather in many ways, but Europe’s string of record-breaking hot and dry summers has defied an easy link to cli-mate change. Climate models do show Europe warming faster than the rest of the planet, but the recent scorchers were triggered by peculiar weather con-ditions: masses of hot, dry air parked over the continent, blocking any incursions of cool or moist relief.A new study suggests global warming could be responsible after all. It proposes a chain of events that starts with an infusion of meltwater from shrinking Arctic ice, which ultimately alters massive ocean currents and regional air circula-tion patterns. [...]

Abstract: Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme events magnified under climate change with critical implications for the human and environmental systems they impact. These phenomena are generally investigated as a large-scale effect over extensive regions. However, their regional-to-local characteristics and trends are responsible for the specific effects on local communities. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and evolution of regional HWs covering the 1950 to 2021 period across different European climates, central Europe (CE), France (FR), and the Iberian Peninsula (IP), including an analysis of the local and remote relationship between summer heat periods and winter-spring precipitation conditions. Our results confirm the general increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of the HW phenomena over the three domains but point out their uneven evolution under climate change. While a larger frequency increase in the number of heat periods affects IP and FR, it is over CE, where the largest frequency change is observed in the most recent decades. Over north-western FR and CE the most intense HW events have recently registered, further over CE HWs’ long-lasting durations between five to six days have tripled from the sixties to recent decades. It is indeed over the latter that a substantial increase in human exposure to HW phenomena is observed. [...]

Abstract: In the 2022 summer, western–central Europe and several other regions in the northern extratropics experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in western–central Europe, a June–August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that under 2 ∘C global warming, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for western–central Europe compared to today and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics. 

Abstract: The representation of groundwater is simplified in most regional climate models (RCMs), potentially leading to biases in the simulations. This study introduces a unique dataset from the regional Terrestrial Systems Modelling Platform (TSMP) driven by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) boundary conditions in the context of dynamical downscaling of global climate models (GCMs) for climate change studies. TSMP explicitly simulates full 3D soil and groundwater dynamics together with overland flow, including complete water and energy cycles from the bedrock to the top of the atmosphere. By comparing the statistics of heat events, i.e., a series of consecutive days with a near-surface temperature exceeding the 90th percentile of the reference period, from TSMP and those from GCM-RCM simulations with simplified groundwater dynamics from the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) for the European domain, we aim to improve the understanding of how groundwater representation affects heat events in Europe.

 

Abstract: When different flooding drivers co‐occur, they can cause compound floods. Despite the potential impact of compound flooding, few studies have projected how the joint probability of flooding drivers may change. Furthermore, existing projections may not be very robust, as they are based on only 5 to 6 climate model simulations. Here, we use a large ensemble of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to project changes in the joint probability of extreme storm surges and precipitation at European tide gauges under a medium and high emissions scenario, enabled by data‐proximate cloud computing and statistical storm surge modeling. We find that the joint probability will increase in the northwest and decrease in most of the southwest of Europe. Averaged over Europe, the absolute magnitude of these changes is 36%–49% by 2080, depending on the scenario. The large‐scale changes in the joint probability of extreme storm surges and precipitation are similar to those in the joint probability of extreme wind speeds and precipitation, but locally, differences can exceed the changes themselves. Due to internal climate variability and inter‐model differences, projections based on simulations of only 5 to 6 randomly chosen CMIP6 models have a probability of higher than 10% to differ qualitatively from projections based on all CMIP6 simulations in multiple regions, especially under the medium emissions scenario and earlier in the twenty‐first century. Therefore, our results provide a more robust and less uncertain representation of changes in the potential for compound flooding in Europe than previous projections. [...]

Abstract: Climate change elevates the threat of compound heat and drought events, with their ecological and socioeconomic impacts exacerbated by human ecosystem alterations such as eutrophication, salinization, and river engineering. Here, we study how multiple stressors produced an environmental disaster in a large European river, the Oder River, where a toxic bloom of the brackish-water planktonic haptophyte Prymnesium parvum (the “golden algae”) killed approximately 1000 metric tons of fish and most mussels and snails. We uncovered the complexity of this event using hydroclimatic data, remote sensing, cell counts, hydrochemical and toxin analyses, and genetics. After incubation in impounded upstream channels with drastically elevated concentrations of salts and nutrients, only a critical combination of chronic salt and nutrient pollution, acute high water temperatures, and low river discharge during a heatwave enabled the riverine mass proliferation of B-type P. parvum along a 500 km river section. The dramatic losses of large filter feeders and the spreading of vegetative cells and resting stages make the system more susceptible to new harmful algal blooms. Our findings show that global warming, water use intensification, and chronic ecosystem pollution could increase likelihood and severity of such compound ecoclimatic events, necessitating consideration in future impact models.

Abstract: Coastal flooding estimation at large scale, e.g. pan-European is usually performed using static method while dynamic method, in which numerical flood models are used to solve hydrodynamic equations, have proven to perform better. However, a numerical flood model can rapidly become computationally demanding. Thus, to respect the balance between efficiency and quality, models need to be properly configured. Usually, the model configuration is supported by calibration and validation. In the cases where it is not possible to appropriately implement calibration and validation through comparison against observed and measured data, sensitivity analyses can be applied in order to identify the key parameters that could influence the model capability to properly represent the modelled process. The present work aimed to identify influential model parameters across Europe and their relative importance in flood model configuration. Seventeen test cases were selected for which a LISFLOOD-FP model was developed, covering several sites across Europe and considering different storm events [...]

Abstract:  The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city. [...]

Abstract:  The aim of this contribution is to provide a brief overview of the current and future earth observation (EO) technologies that can be used to assess and manage the EU coastal flood risk, together with the pertinent international and EU policies and legislation. The review has shown that EOs have become an indispensable technology for the assessment and management of the coastal flood risk, and their role will increase further in the future when EO information of higher resolution and accuracy become available. With regard to the relevant policies and legislation, their common thread is associated with the promotion and facilitation of the development of appropriate data and tools for high-quality and timely geo-spatial information based on EO technologies. In Europe, in particular, this development is promoted and facilitated by an array of international and supra-national (EU), interacting policies and legislation. It appears, however, that additional initiatives and technological progress in EO functionalities and the information technology are needed together with more targeted policy and legislation frameworks to provide vital information for the management of the coastal flood risk.

Abstract: Windstorms are among the most impacting natural hazards affecting Western and Central Europe. Information on the associated impacts and losses are essential for risk assessment and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, we compare reported and estimated windstorm losses from five datasets belonging to three categories: Indices combining meteorological and insurance aspects, natural hazard databases, and loss reports from insurance companies. We analyse the similarities and differences between the datasets in terms of reported events, the number of storms per dataset and the ranking of specific storm events for the period October 1999 to March 2022 across 21 European countries. A total of 94 individual windstorms were documented. Only 11 of them were reported in all five datasets, while the large majority (roughly 60%) was solely recorded in single datasets. Results show that the total number of storms is different in the various datasets, although for the meteorological indices such number is fixed a priori. Additionally, the datasets often disagree on the storm frequency per winter season. Moreover, the ranking of storms based on reported/estimated losses varies in the datasets. However, these differences are reduced when the ranking is calculated relative to storm events that are common in the various datasets. The results generally hold for losses aggregated at European and at country level. Overall, the datasets provide different views on windstorm impacts. Thus, to avoid misleading conclusions, we use no dataset as “ground truth” but treat all of them as equal. We suggest that these different views can be used to test which features are relevant for calibrating windstorm models in specific regions. Furthermore, it could enable users to assign an uncertainty range to windstorm losses. We conclude that a combination of different datasets is crucial to obtain a representative picture of windstorm associated impacts.

Abstract: Central Europe is not a typical wildfire region; however, an increasingly warm and dry climate and model-based projections indicate that the number of forest fires are increasing. This study provides new insights into the drivers of forest fire occurrence in the Czech Republic, during the period 2006 to 2015, by focusing on climate, land cover, and human activity factors. The average annual number of forest fires during the study period was 728, with a median burned area of 0.01 ha. Forest fire incidence showed distinct spring (April) and summer (July to August) peaks, with median burned areas of 0.04 ha and 0.005 ha, respectively. Relationships between the predictors (climate data, forest-related data, socioeconomic data, and landscape-context data) and the number of forest fires in individual municipality districts were analyzed using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) on three time scales (annually, monthly, and during the summer season). The constructed GAMs explained 48.7 and 53.8% of forest fire variability when fire occurrence was analyzed on a monthly scale and during the summer season, respectively. On an annual scale, the models explained 71.4% of the observed forest fire variability. The number of forest fires was related to the number of residents and overnight tourists in the area. The effect of climate was manifested on monthly and summer season scales only, with warmer and drier conditions associated with higher forest fire frequency. [...]

Abstract:  Tree species composition is known to influence forest productivity, but its effect on forest resilience to disturbances such as storms remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, climate is likely to influence forest resilience directly but also to influence the effect of tree species composition on resilience. In Europe, storm‐induced tree mortality is currently increasing across all climatic biomes. Understanding the drivers of forest resilience to storms and its consistency across climates appears to be crucial for predicting the consequences of climate change for European forests. In this study, we used a simulation approach with an integral projection model calibrated with National Forest Inventory (NFI) data at the European scale.

Abstract:  Islands and small island groups are among the areas most affected by global climate change and face major adaptation challenges. Their role as hotspots of climate change impacts is widely recognized in the scientific literature, and it is not uncommon for small islands to act as poster children for particular climate-related vulnerability. Nonetheless, many island communities have a long tradition of living with oceanic influences, and the question is whether such habitats, where terrestrial and marine ecosystems overlap, have characteristics that contribute to greater self-regulation and resilience. The question is further whether and how the future or possible futures of such an exposed region and society could unfold, considering the negative impact of climate change and the resulting burden of natural disasters. The Halligen in the southern North Sea are an exceptional example of such a situation, and they are to be examined in this study particularly due to their extremely uncertain future. [...]

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