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Abstract by the authors: As humanity's current production and consumption patterns exceed planetary boundaries, many opinion leaders have stressed the need to adopt green economic stimulus policies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This paper provides an integrated framework to design an economic recovery strategy aligned with sustainability objectives through a multi-criterion, multi-stakeholder lens. The aim is to enable decisions by policy makers with the aid of transparent workflows that include expert evidence that is based on quantitative open-source modeling, and qualitative input by diverse social actors in a participatory approach. The paper employs an energy systems model and an economic input-output model to provide quantitative evidence and design a multi-criteria decision process that engages stakeholders from government, enterprises, and civil society. As a case study, the paper studies 13 green recovery measures that are relevant for Cyprus and assesses their appropriateness for criteria related to environmental sustainability, socioeconomic and job impact, and climate resilience. The results highlight trade-offs between immediate and long-run effects, between economic and environmental objectives, and between expert evidence and societal priorities. Importantly, the paper finds that a "return-to-normal" economic stimulus is not only environmentally unsustainable, but also economically inferior to most green recovery schemes.
Abstract by the authors: The pandemic crisis constitutes an unprecedented challenge for the European Union and for the Euro Area. Indeed, the European institutional architecture can be viewed as being halfway between an association of sovereign states (like the United Nations) and a politically integrated federation (like the United States). In this original construction, competences on several matters (such as economic, political, social and health issues) are shared at the European level, but also at the national and local levels, in more complex ways than in fully integrated federations. To improve the European Union’s resilience to violent external shocks, the main objective of this paper is to determine to what extent these competences should be transferred to the federal level. In this respect, we will consider whether a federal leap is necessary in several areas, namely (i) monetary and fiscal policy (rules), (ii) labor markets policy and social models, migratory flows and skill shortages, and cooperation policy and (iii) renewed industrial policy and exchange rates. Despite a highly uncertain context, we outline some perspectives for the future of the European Union.
Abstract by the authors: The recovery measures announced by Europe in parallel with the Green Deal are the perfect opportunity to step up the effort to measure the impact of public expenditure, both in the short and in the long term. To that aim, it is essential to quickly stabilise benchmarks to measure the financial and non-financial impact of investments in the European recovery plan.
Abstract by the authors : The profiles of economic recoveries after a financial crisis are identified through a selforganizing map, covering 104 countries during 1973–2017. First and surprisingly, only 55% of the 276 events belong to the usual V-U-L classification. New S-shaped bounceback recoveries, D(oomed) ones, and double-dip M occur in 23%, 18%, and 4% of the cases, respectively. Second, the frequencies of profiles vary with the crisis type, countries’ development and location, and over time. Third, unlike government spending, supporting domestic credit, liquidity, foreign trade or else the exchange rate after the crisis may help activity bounce back.
Abstract by the authors: Rebuilding the global economy is essential to addressing many interlocking problems at once, including recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, inequality, and limiting international conflict. In the summer of 2020, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) enlisted scholars and stakeholders to deliver 39 memoranda to a wide range of top policymakers and institutions. The authors called for dozens of specific measures to counter an economic crisis that was activated by a global pandemic but that was also years in the making. The memoranda were originally published from October through December 2020 on the Rebuilding the Global Economy microsite. Some of the recommendations have since been implemented. This PIIE Briefing collects the memoranda in a single volume. The mandate of the Institute's "Rebuilding the Global Economy" project has been to connect a long-term strategy with precise policy actions to achieve rapid results at the start of a new US presidential administration. The emphasis has been on advising policymakers and senior officials, as well as the public, in the United States and the European Union, and at the Bretton Woods international economic institutions. At least in the initial phase of the project, PIIE restricted itself to places where the authors had standing and experience to speak. Other nations, regions, and institutions merit the same voice on rebuilding the global economy, so while the Institute does not presume to speak for them, its leadership is encouraging them to engage with the Institute in offering their own similar advice. Many memoranda stress that the disorders they are addressing have accumulated slowly over the last two decades or even longer, culminating with the nationalism and protectionism of recent years and finally in the COVID-19 pandemic and the worldwide economic shock of 2020–21.
Abstract by the authors: In 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programmes through a host of initiatives. These included efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We present and analyse detailed information about those national credit-support programmes implemented in the context of fiscal policy, in Europe’s five largest national economies (besides Russia) in 2020: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analytical part of the paper focuses on two aspects: How countries have dealt with the many trade-offs that emerged in designing and implementing the programmes; What explains the differentiated usage of the facilities in the examined countries, as well as its levelling off in the second half of 2020.Section 1 defines and describes the programmes. Section 2 presents the trade-offs we identified in programme design and implementation. Section 3 explores the factors explaining actual usage in the five countries and over time. Section 4 concludes. Annexes provide details on the programmes for each country (Annex 5) and in summarised matrix form (Annex 4).
Abstract by the authors: The European Union’s plan for aiding recovery in member states hit by the coronavirus crisis has been rightly hailed as a major breakthrough for the bloc. But there is much less clarity on the plan’s economic aims, its priorities and the content of the contractual arrangements it should entail between the EU and member countries. The plan’s main plank, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is widely seen as a short-term Keynesian stimulus. The EU debt is expected to be repaid through contributions from member states, but this has not stopped the resulting transfers as being seen, including by national governments, as money from heaven. There has also been controversy over the conditions attached to grants and loans. Such fuzziness over objectives and overloaded procedures can derail the RRF. The EU needs to make an effort to provide clarity from the outset and put the plan on the right track. It should acknowledge and emphasise that the main goal of the RRF is not to contribute to immediate relief or a Keynesian stimulus, but to foster structural transformation, especially in less-advanced and harder-hit member states. The EU should hold back from trying to impose through overall policy conditionality its reform agenda on the member states. Instead, there should be a narrow-conditionality approach in which reforms that strongly complement intended investments should be identified and bundled with that investment. A grant aimed at encouraging decarbonisation in the transport sector, for example, would, be made conditional on the elimination of transport fuel subsidies. Therefore, in national recovery and resilience plans, each bundle of investments and reforms should be focused on the limited set of policy measures that need to be implemented to maximise the impact of EU-financed investment. Meanwhile, complementarity across objectives should be addressed through a dialogue with each member state on the sectoral allocation of EU funding and the overall architecture of their recovery and resilience plans. And the EU should emphasise when relevant the cross-border dimension of investment plans and find ways to encourage member states to cooperate on the design and the implementation of their plans.
Abstract by the authors: The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD’s twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. Prepared by the OECD Economics Department, the Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, government spending, prices and current balances based on a review of each member country and of the induced effect on each of them on international developments. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. Each issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarizing developments and providing projections for each individual country, three to five chapters on topics of current interest such as housing, and an extensive statistical annex with a wide variety of variables including general debt.
Abstract by the authors: Deeply shaken by the COVID-19 outbreak and the crises it has caused, the international community must draw the right lessons and embark on a common path towards a healthier and more resilient society. To this end, this paper argues that the large-scale economic recovery packages currently being drafted represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to accelerate the structural transformation of the economy toward zero pollution, biodiversity restoration, and climate neutrality. The first part of the paper therefore outlines how a green recovery investment plan can unite economic and environmental ambitions, resulting in a double win—in Europe and beyond. However, national recovery efforts must be guided by and embedded in an international political agenda. Addressing the diplomatic void caused by the postponement of major multinational conferences this year, the second part of the paper argues that, on the basis of an ambitious green recovery plan, the European Union can and should be at the forefront of international efforts toward a greener post-COVID-19 world, leading by example and enabling the likeminded to follow.
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