Industry, Research and Energy: Home

European industrial production in the face of energy dynamics and geopolitical shocks; Kazi Sohag, Vsevolod Karass, Khorshed Alam; Energy (Oxford), 2025-02, Vol.316, p.134451, Article 134451

Abstract: We assess the resilience and vulnerability of European industrial production to cyclical hydrocarbon-price shocks, geopolitical risks, and real effective exchange rates. Employing advanced analytical tools such as Panel VAR-GMM and Dynamic Common Correlation Effect (DCCE), we analyse monthly data from January 2000 to June 2023, encompassing 23 selected EU countries. Our findings reveal that European industrial production exhibits a degree of vulnerability to oil price shocks, particularly in the case of manufacturing production. Conversely, the industrial sector demonstrates resilience when faced with shocks in gas prices. Notably, industrial production responds adversely to geopolitical risks and escalations, with the impact being more pronounced in the presence of geopolitically induced hydrocarbon price shocks.

Forecasting Energy Poverty in European Countries: The Effect of Increasing Energy Commodities Prices; Carfora, Alfonso; Scandurra, Giuseppe; Energies (Basel), 2024-03, Volume 17 (5), p. 1224

The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating in many countries, increasing household energy poverty. Lockdown measures have brought the EU economies into recession phases and forced people to stay confined to their homes, aggravating these issues. From the second half of 2021, when the worst seemed behind us, a new threat has appeared threatening economic recovery: the inflationary process in energy prices. This paper aims to verify the effects on energy poverty in European countries following the economic crisis generated by COVID-19 and the current inflationary scenario due to the increase in energy commodity prices through dynamic factor models, estimating the time it will take for energy poverty to return to levels before the shocks that occurred over the past two years. The outcomes show that the overall rise in energy prices (in particular gas) that unexpectedly affected European countries modifies the forecast scenarios, delaying, at best, the first improvements, initially expected as early as 2021, until after 2022.

The  EP Library Catalogue allows you to browse through our collection on the topic: 

• Journals and articles
• E-books
• EPRS and other EP publications