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Road Transport and Electric Mobility

Selected e-articles

Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered a promising alternative to achieve a cleaner transportation sector. In the last decade, European countries have implemented financial incentive policies to boost EV adoption. This paper estimates the impacts of these policies on EV adoption in Europe using data from 30 countries from 2012 to 2021 and a multi-period difference-in-differences approach. Our results reveal that purchase incentive policies are associated with increased registrations of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and that the effect holds over time. However, the magnitude and duration of these effects are more significant for battery electric vehicles. Ownership incentive policies do not contribute to EV registrations for either type. Further, the results suggest that policy impacts vary between countries with different levels of gross domestic product per capita and renewable energy consumption. These results contribute to the literature on evaluating financial incentive policies for EV adoption, enabling improved decision making by policymakers.

Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in the ongoing road transportation transition. European regulations on greenhouse gas emissions significantly boosted EV new registrations across most European Union (EU) countries. To model their future development in Europe, we adopt a hierarchical clustering approach, which allows us to group the countries under 7 clusters based on how evolved they are in the transition to net zero-emission passenger car new registrations. Subsequently, we select representative countries for each identified cluster. By using these representative countries, we run a scenario analysis for each cluster to obtain the electrification path of the different passenger car markets across the EU until 2035. In our scenario, innovator clusters are well-positioned to achieve the CO² zero-emission passenger car target before 2035. However, other clusters, represented by Poland and Greece, are lagging behind even after 2030 and might face challenges to reach the target in 2035.

Abstract: The air pollution of our planet is rising, and the contribution of road transport to global pollution has a serious impact on this phenomenon. Previous papers have analysed and recommended measures to reduce road transport’s negative environmental impact and carbon footprint. However, some restrictions are impossible (or very costly) to meet, even in developed countries. Unfortunately, presenting the impact of transport on air pollution levels as a whole can only give a general picture. This paper provides a more detailed analysis and attempts to assess the impact of one of the most important elements shaping modern transport, that is, vehicle engine types. Thus, the main objective of the study is to analyse and evaluate the different types of engines in vehicles from the point of view of technical, environmental, and economic aspects in European countries and to verify whether Europe is ready to implement the European Green Deal. The results indicate significant technological developments must occur in electric vehicles to become environmentally better than combustion engine-based cars. Additionally, in the case of some developing countries, owning a means of transport is still perceived as a symbol of a certain status, which is why it is still an important material asset. Thus, in rich countries, material status and environmental awareness (e.g. choice of public transport) will help to achieve climate neutrality, while poorer countries (even developed ones) may have severe problems in meeting EU requirements. Overall, while answering some questions, this article also poses new ones. Decision-makers often face challenging aspects. This article is intended to give them a basic knowledge to pursue an environmental policy that is viable and feasible for all countries.

Abstract: Climate change, carbon emissions, and energy resource depletion have become major concerns worldwide. The transportation sector is a primary target in various political and environmental agendas to tackle them. This calls for switching to sustainable transportation, and one of the important steps towards it is vehicle electrification. Understanding public attitudes towards electric vehicles (EVs) is the key to escalating vehicle electrification. By doing so, governments and enterprises can take the necessary action to persuade people to adopt electric mobility. Unlike past studies, which measured public attitudes using user acceptance data at a minuscule level, this paper adopts a macroscopic approach to this problem by mining public opinions from Twitter. Since Twitter provides access to its public tweet database, decoding the opinions of a vast population for extensive periods has become computationally tractable in recent years. The collected tweets have been used to examine the temporal and geographical dimensions of public perception using Natural Language Processing techniques. The substantial shifts in public sentiment have been identified, and the underlying incidents and topics were interpreted. In the pre-pandemic phase, most of the study nations saw an improvement in public sentiment towards EVs in the time period just before the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be attributed to the world-wide race to zero emissions to meet the Paris Agreement's carbon reduction targets. The public optimism further improved during the pandemic period. After the pandemic, the positivity towards EVs has declined in majority of the nations. The interpreted topics of discourse at the sentiment changepoints can be categorised into the following broad themes: (i) users and potential customers discourse, (ii) engineering and technology, (iii) politics, (iv) environment, (v) business and marketing, and (vi) miscellaneous. Most of the topics of discussion were centred around electric automotive firms, signifying the importance of the role of electric vehicle enterprises in electric vehicle adoption. The outcomes of this study can aid policymakers and electric automotive firms in comprehending the evolution of public perception towards electric mobility and thereby adopt and accelerate the human-centric transitions to carbon-neutral transport options.

Abstract: L’arrêt d’ici à 2035 de la production des véhicules à moteurs thermiques au profit principalement de véhicules électriques pose le défi des matières premières requises par ces derniers. La très forte croissance actuelle de leur production ne suffira pas pour répondre à la demande, le recyclage, bien qu’essentiel, pas plus, dans la mesure où il n’y aura pas assez de véhicules à recycler à moyen terme et où demeurent des pénuries prévisibles en cuivre et en nickel et des aléas géopolitiques pour le reste. L’acceptabilité de voitures à faible autonomie est limitée. Les innovations technologiques auront donc un rôle crucial à jouer : batteries au fer, au soufre ou au sodium, réduction des consommations de matériaux critiques dans d’autres activités… Si le progrès technique a dans le passé permis de résoudre nombre d’autres problèmes complexes, le rythme imposé de cette transition est ici sans précédent.

Abstract: Leaders worldwide have committed to tackling climate change and adopted climate-related measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation electrification is one of these measures taken to achieve carbon neutrality and requires the replacement of fossil-fueled internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs). EV adoption has accelerated in several countries over the past decade. Nonetheless, the EV adoption pace remained uneven throughout the globe as many factors affect the social acceptance of EVs. Additionally, dissimilar economic conditions, driving behaviors, population densities, societal norms, educational backgrounds, and geographical conditions among the countries further complicate the consumers' purchasing intentions. This article analyzed the competitiveness of EVs compared to ICE vehicles based on the nations’ market demands. The research focuses on China, Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The comparative analysis was conducted in terms of vehicle performance, charging infrastructure, government policy, and social factors. Strategies to promote EV adoption include introducing price-competitive EV models, importing affordable EVs, strengthening EV purchase incentives, extending driving ranges, diversifying battery manufacturers, subsidizing electricity for EVs, developing public charging infrastructure, offering EV rental and sharing programs, promoting EV-enabled technologies, and increasing the use of renewable energy in electricity generation and EV manufacturing. The suggested measures aim to address market demand and improve the competitiveness and social acceptance of EVs. By sharing experiences and implementing effective strategies, countries can accelerate the transition to electric transportation and mitigate the environmental impacts of the automotive sector.

Abstract: The transport sector is the only sector where carbon emissions continue to grow. This has led policy makers to propose ambitious policies to reduce emissions in the car sector, in particular carbon emissions standards, portfolio mandates for Electric Vehicles and purchase taxes or subsidies. We use a stylized two-period model for the car manufacturing sector to compare the cost efficiency of these policies. The model has gasoline fueled cars (GV) compete with battery electric cars (EV). Both types of cars have endogenous technological progress that is triggered by environmental policies, including tradable carbon emissions standards, portfolio mandates, carbon taxes, purchase taxes and R&D subsidies. Parked EVs can serve as batteries that help grid operators to shift off peak (renewable) electricity to peak hour supply. The model is calibrated to evaluate the EU policy to reduce average carbon emissions of new cars by 37,5% in 2030 compared to 2021. We assess the cost-efficiency of policy instruments evaluating vehicle costs and prices, fuel costs, and externalities. We find that a carbon emissions standard achieves emission reductions at a much lower cost than a portfolio mandate for electric cars.

Abstract: Recent forecasts for the rapid electrification of the road transport sector towards 2030 have given rise to considerable uncertainty associated with battery production capacity and whether it will be able to meet the growing demand in Europe. In view of this uncertainty and the potential implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this paper explores the optimal electrification level of passenger cars for minimising well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions as a function of battery production capacity. The findings indicate that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) could be the key components of the optimal sales mix in a battery-constrained future; especially the lower-range PHEVs with smaller batteries would be preferable over hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). To ensure the best utilisation of the available battery resources, the longer-range PHEVs require far higher levels of utility factor to be able to play a role in the optimal sales mix.

Abstract: When examining pathways to decarbonise transport, one must examine users’ mobility and examine ways to enable them to adapt. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is incentivised to help reach emission reduction targets; however, existing research predominantly focuses on the private sector. This study analyses data on EV grants for commercial operators and the spatial distribution of commercial industries in Ireland. Results reveal a disparity in EV adoption between the commercial and private sectors. Retail, Professional Activities, Education, and Construction sub-sectors show the highest likelihood of embracing EVs. Spatial heatmaps identify high-density commercial clusters that could be useful for allocating public EV charging stations. The findings underscore the significance of the commercial sector’s transition to EVs towards achieving net-zero targets. Importantly, this study highlights that policies aimed at promoting EV uptake in the commercial sector need to be refined as its requirements are distinct from the private sector.

Abstract: The growing demand for personal mobility is leading to an increase in vehicle use, which is in turn contributing to higher carbon emissions. It is widely acknowledged that emission-free electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the decarbonization process, particularly in the decarbonization of transport systems. The objective of this paper was to present the trends in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in Poland, together with the identification of market shocks and an assessment of the programs supporting electromobility. The number of imported and domestically purchased new and used electric vehicle (BEV) registrations was analyzed using the TRAMO-SEATS and ARIMA-X-12 seasonal adjustment methods. The rise in sales of electric vehicles in Poland was driven by the government’s electromobility support programs and alterations to tax legislation, with no discernible seasonal impact. The number of registrations in Poland increased significantly, exhibiting an upward trajectory. However, this growth is constrained by the inadequate number of charging stations, which are primarily powered by electricity derived from coal. Consequently, while the development of electromobility in Poland is evident, the decarbonization process remains a challenge.

Abstract: Cet article étudie l'impact du passage au tout-électrique de la voiture individuelle à La Réunion. En effet, dans un objectif de décarbonation du secteur des Transports, la Commission européenne a annoncé la fin de la vente des voitures thermiques en 2035. Si l'objectif environnemental est clair, les impacts sociaux d'une telle transition questionnent dans un territoire affichant de forts taux de pauvreté et un marché de véhicules électriques encore à ses débuts. La faisabilité de la transition est étudiée sur différents plans : quel impact pour la production locale d'électricité ? Les ménages pourront-ils assumer cette transition ? À partir de données de revenus et de composition des ménages et d'une analyse du marché de véhicules électriques existants sur l'île de la Réunion, nous proposons une cartographie des vulnérabilités sociales suite au passage au tout-électrique.

Abstract: Large-scale deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is strategically important for the transition toward a low-carbon economy. Denmark has traditionally stimulated BEV diffusion through a registration tax exemption that was lifted in 2016 and partially reintroduced in 2018. Exploiting car registration and detailed population data covering the period 2013–2019 and using Bayesian additive regression trees, this paper provides new evidence on (i) the effects of the changes in the registration tax on the adoption of BEVs in Denmark, (ii) the socioeconomic factors that influence BEV adoption, and (iii) the presence of freerider effects. The results suggest that the number of BEVs would have been higher had the tax exemption remained. Moreover, we detect heterogenous treatment effects that are larger the more likely a socioeconomic group is to purchase a BEV. Consequently, we expect that there are substantial freerider effects in the promotion of BEVs via the tax system.

Abstract: Electric mobility is critical to reducing emissions from transport and dependency on Internal Combustion Engine vehicles. This study attempts to model the suitability of the built environment for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in urban areas based on sociodemographics and access to driveways for installing charging infrastructure. A novel approach using geospatial techniques is adopted to detect driveways from multispectral remote sensing information. A region in Dublin, Ireland, has been chosen as the study area. The region is further categorised based on the feasibility of EV adoption using hierarchical cluster analysis. Initial results highlight the disparity in access to low-emission modes to those not dependent on cars. Results from zero-inflated count models at the neighbourhood level reiterate the impact of driveways and sociodemographic factors on EV adoption. The proposed methodology can help evaluate infrastructure availability for widespread EV transition and inform strategic planning. The driveway detection framework may be adapted to other regions while accounting for geographic characteristics.

Abstract: L’industrie automobile allemande est confronté à des changements historiques tels que l’électrification des parcs automobiles et l’accès aux sources d’énergie renouvelables. Ce « double choc » est un défi pour l’avenir de ce secteur, qui doit maintenir un équilibre entre les nouvelles exigences et les besoins actuels des consommateurs allemands, qui restent réticents vis-à-vis des voitures électriques. Le marché automobile allemand intérieur enregistre une croissance de nouvelles immatriculations, mais la vente des voitures électriques ne représente qu’une petite partie, après la réduction des primes à l’achat. Cette situation, ensemble avec la forte hausse des prix de l’énergie, a entraîné une réduction des emplois et même quelques fermetures chez les constructeurs allemands et leurs fournisseurs. Les bornes de recharge sont en plein développement, tout comme les projets pour des usines de batterie. Malgré ces efforts, l’importance du secteur automobile allemande risque de diminuer au niveau mondial, pour faire place à ces concurrents chinois et américains.

Abstract: As a considerable amount of greenhouse gas emissions are caused by the transport sector, the German government has initiated programs for the promotion of electric vehicles (EVs) and the installation of charging infrastructure. A harmonized solution for vehicle authentication, payment methods, and pricing models is required since currently available charging stations are highly heterogeneous resulting in challenges for EV users and potentially in dissatisfying charging experiences. To provide recommendations for charging station operators and transport policy measures, a stated preference experiment was designed. In computer-assisted personal interviews, 450 respondents were provided with choice tasks with different configurations, where they indicated their preferences by choosing the most preferred charging station. Results from a mixed multinomial logit model indicate that future charging stations should enable vehicle authentication via the charging cable (Plug&Charge), provide card-based payment (debit or credit card), and charge per amount of electricity (kWh). Further, higher shares of renewable energy at charging stations are preferred and tend to increase the acceptance of EVs.

Abstract: This study assesses the economic viability of replacing the existing diesel vehicles with electric ones in the public transport sector of mid-sized European cities. It analyses the win-win situation that would result from a public-private financing of such vehicles. The proposed methodology is designed to revisit and improve public sector decision-making and its tools. The procedure entails an analysis of the acquisition and operating costs of electric buses, accounting separately for internal costs and externalities, applying different discount rates for the concessionaire and for public funds. The data used for this study comes from literature review and open-source data for Zaragoza, a medium size city in Northeast Spain. The results obtained show that investment in electric buses, by itself, is not profitable if approached only from the private sector and therefore requires public subsidy. The study, replicable in other locations, reveals the importance of this type of analysis during the decision-making process, considering public funds for sustainable urban mobility development as one solution to address energy transition.

Abstract: L'industrie automobile fait face à une transformation historique qui bouleverse comme jamais la chaîne de valeur du secteur. Les industriels y sont pleinement engagés, au point que le secteur automobile, par le poids de ses investissements en R&D, apparaît aujourd'hui comme le premier moteur de l'innovation en France et en Europe.L'accélération réglementaire européenne, à travers le paquet « Fit for 55 » qui fait du 100 % électrique la technologie unique dès 2035, implique cependant des risques pour le tissu industriel et pour l'emploi, qui plus est sur fond de repli sans précédent d'un marché impacté par une addition de crises.Y faire face en les transformant en opportunités, suppose trois leviers que mobilisent, d'ores et déjà, les industriels : reconquérir notre souveraineté technologique, réduire nos risques de dépendance et faire de la bataille de la compétitivité le levier majeur d'une nouvelle ambition industrielle.Or, au regard de son électricité décarbonée qui constitue un véritable avantage comparatif, la France est plus que jamais légitime pour se positionner comme le territoire prioritaire des investissements liés à l'électrification de la mobilité et pour en faire un levier de réindustrialisation.

Abstract: The energy transition requires widespread electrification of the transport sector. To promote the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), it is essential to understand consumers’ perceptions and behavior, particularly regarding the main determinants of EV purchase and the acceptance of electric mobility (EM). With this aim, we focused on an industrialized city in Portugal, addressing the differences between the effective ownership of an EV and the acceptability of EM and between the domestic sector (DS) and the business sector (BS) through questionnaires. Our results indicate that sociodemographic variables are the main determinants of the purchase of EVs and the acceptance of EM in the DS. Men and higher income individuals are more likely to own an EV. On the other hand, younger generations are more likely to have high EM acceptance. Individuals who already own an EV are the ones that have the desire and economic means to do so, regardless of any incentives. Still, widespread market penetration of EVs requires incentives for individuals who desire to own one of these vehicles but do not have the economic power to do so. Additionally, the DS and the BS behave differently; hence, specially designed policies are needed.

Abstract: The ongoing spread of electric sustainable mobility is transforming the local ways of transport in metropolitan areas. This is meant to be extended outside of big cities in the near future thanks to new technological developments. Little towns should adapt to these changes, as they are located geographically far from the big cities and are generally characterized by low economic and demographic indicators. Hence, little towns must keep pace with these changes in mobility to avoid being isolated from the main cities in a country. People living in the countryside usually move toward big cities for various reasons, either related to work or living necessities. Therefore, it must be possible to conduct usual displacements through the use of electric vehicles (EVs), i.e., reaching the destinations and supplying the batteries through charging infrastructures. This paper studies the full implementation of electric mobility applied in the case of Cuenca, a city located in middle Spain. A brief geographical context is provided, together with the routes and destinations of interest considered. Then, different EVs are considered and an analytical vehicle model is provided. The model was exploited to simulate the electrical energy demand to reach the destinations chosen; the results allow comparing the performances offered by different types of EVs. This aspect is then considered as the basis to propose further upgrades in the charging infrastructures where needed, to comply with the widespread use of electric mobility.

Abstract: Regardless of increased attention in electric vehicles (EV) market expansion, the actual penetration of EVs remains low globally. Almost all major OEMs have announced investment plans to ensure that EVs constitute a major, if not complete, chunk of their product portfolios. On their part, governments worldwide (e.g., China, Poland, India, USA, etc.) have used various policy measures to facilitate EV adoption. In this paper, we study how incentives offered in terms of subsidy and differential taxation schemes could increase the market penetration of EVs. We analyze different models under uniform and differential taxation policies with and without subsidy, using a non-cooperative game-theoretic approach. Our analysis reveals that the government can follow any of the three tax-subsidy mixes that could maximize social welfare, i.e., differential taxation with and without subsidy, and identical tax with a subsidy. Surprisingly, the manufacturer's profit, the government's income, and consumer surplus for these three models are also the same and are better than the other two models depending on the consumer's green sensitivity, i.e., for higher green sensitivity, these three models can provide a win–win outcome. From an environmental perspective, levying tax on gasoline vehicles (GV) without subsidy to the manufacturer minimizes the overall environmental impact. In contrast, levying the same tax for both types of vehicles without subsidy to the manufacturer generates the maximum overall environmental impact. Furthermore, an increase in the unit environmental impact of vehicles attracts higher taxes. We portray that the increase in the cost-difference between EV and GV increases GV demand and is detrimental for EV acceptance. In addition, multifaceted insights are drawn for manufacturers and policymakers to envisage electric mobility. We extend our models and show that our main results hold under the implementation of mandate on EV manufacturers under subsidy and non-subsidy model, and inclusion of hassle cost for consumers due to lack of infrastructure in terms of charging facilities and maintenance.

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