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Selected Online Reading on Road Transport and Electric Mobility

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Selected e-articles

Abstract by the authors: The uptake of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), subject to bottlenecks, seems to have reached a tipping point in the UK and this mirrors a general trend globally. BEVs are being positioned as one significant strand in the web of policy intended to translate the good intentions of Article 2 of the Conference of the Parties 21 Paris Agreement into reality. Governments and municipalities are anticipating that a widespread shift to BEVs will significantly reduce transport-related carbon emissions and, therefore, augment their nationally determined contributions to emissions reduction within the Paris Agreement. However, matters are more complicated than they may appear. There is a difference between thinking we can just keep relying on human ingenuity to solve problems after they emerge and engaging in fundamental social redesign to prevent the trajectories of harm. BEVs illustrate this. The contribution to emissions reduction per vehicle unit may be less than the public initially perceive since the important issue here is the lifecycle of the BEV and this is in no sense zero-emission. Furthermore, even though one can make the case that BEVs are a superior alternative to the fossil fuel-powered internal combustion engine, the transition to BEVs may actually facilitate exceeding the carbon budget on which the Paris Agreement ultimately rests. Whether in fact it does depends on the nature of the policy that shapes the transition. If the transition is a form of substitution that conforms to rather than shifts against current global scales and trends in private transportation, then it is highly likely that BEVs will be a successful failure. For this not to be the case, then the transition to BEVs must be coordinated with a transformation of the current scales and trends in private transportation. That is, a significant reduction in dependence on and individual ownership of powered vehicles, a radical reimagining of the nature of private conveyance and of public transportation.

Abstract by the authors: This study considers whether electric vehicles (EVs) can be exploited as a flexibility management strategy to stimulate investments in and operation of renewable electricity under stringent CO2 constraints in four regions with different conditions for renewable electricity (Sweden, Germany, the UK, and Spain). The study applies a cost-minimisation investment model and an electricity dispatch model of the European electricity system, assuming three types of charging strategies for EVs. The results show that vehicle-to-grid (V2G), i.e., the possibility to discharging the EV batteries back to grid, facilitates an increase in investments and generation from solar photovoltaics (PVs) compare to the scenario without EVs, in all regions except Sweden. Without the possibility to store electricity in EV batteries across different days, which is a technical limitation of this type of model, EVs increase the share of wind power by only a few percentage points in Sweden, even if Sweden is a region with good conditions for wind power. Full electrification of the road transport sector, including also dynamic power transfer for trucks and buses, would decrease the need for investments in peak power in all four regions by at least 50%, as compared to a scenario without EVs or with uncontrolled charging of EVs, provided that an optimal charging strategy and V2G are implemented for the passenger vehicles.

Abstract by the authors: We examine the problem of how to accelerate policies related to electric vehicles (EVs) in the Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. These four Nordic countries represent an interesting collection of cases by virtue of having common decarbonization targets extending to the transport sector, interlinked electric energy systems and a joint electricity market largely based on low-carbon energy while they are open societies bent on innovation, making them well adaptable to a transition toward electric mobility. Our analytical framework drawing from transition research, lock-in and path dependency and institutionalism enables us to discern technological, institutional and behavioral mechanisms which can have both constraining and enabling effects vis-à-vis this transition by means of shaping national socio-technical systems and regimes. On this basis, we also discuss how to develop policies accelerating the transition. We find that the incumbent industries can shape policy choice through the lock-in into institutional inter-dependencies. The accumulation of social and material features, and vested interests of actors, for its part can maintain regime level inertia, impeding the transition. Yet, technological lock-in can also enable EVs, by means of learning effects from technologically interrelated wind energy projects and available infrastructure in buildings that support the EV charging needs. Overall, the complexity of path-dependent mechanisms embedded in the dominant regimes, together with the diversity of emerging policy mixes, demands attention both on the technologies and broader socio-technical systems in order to properly assess the prospects of transition toward electric mobility.

Abstract by the authors: Reducing CO2 emission is one of the major environmental challenges for transportation. One way to solve this problem is to replace old cars that use fossil fuels (petrol, diesel) with new electric cars. In this paper, the existing model for calculating well-to-wheels CO2 emission during the life cycle of the car (fossil fuel car and electric car) is upgraded. The developed model is used for comparing optimal lifetime and optimal car’s kilometers driven during a lifetime in the replacement process of a fossil fuel car with a new electric car. We find that reducing CO2 emission depends on the type of fossil fuel, and the weight of fossil fuel cars and electric cars. Changing petrol fossil fuel cars with lower weight electric cars have the greatest potential for reducing CO2 emission. However, the introduction of electric cars does not achieve a significant reduction of CO2 emission in countries where electricity is primarily produced in thermal power plants, i. e. in countries with a high emission factor of electricity production. [Projects of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. TR 36010, Grant no. TR 36022 and Grant no. TR 36027]. 

Abstract by the authors: When do states forge technological change in mature industries? This article challenges the emphasis on bureaucratic autonomy in explaining the ability of governments to promote technological change. We show that structural features of the bureaucracy alone are insufficient to account for variation in policy intervention, and argue that sectoral patterns of interest intermediation shape state capacity. Political coordination leads industry and government to broker technological transformations in consensus-driven negotiations. This prioritizes the interests of incumbent firms, likely resulting in regulatory capture and weak policy intervention. Political competition among interest groups and state agencies, by contrast, allows policy-makers to organize coalitions of technology challengers, likely leading to strong policy intervention. We examine this argument in the case of electric vehicle policy in Germany and the United States. Germany failed to disrupt its auto sector to transition to electric vehicles, while the United States adopted comprehensive policies for the manufacturing and commercialization of electric cars against incumbent opposition. Counter to conventional wisdom, our findings suggest that states can effectively engage in sectoral intervention to drive technological change in the absence of autonomous bureaucracies.

Abstract by the authors: Increasing the share of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the total car fleet is regarded as a promising way to reduce local car emissions. Based on online surveys in Denmark and Sweden, this study compares BEV users' (n = 673) and conventional vehicle (CV) users' (n = 1794) socio-demographic profiles, attitudinal profiles, and mobility patterns. In line with previous research, BEV users are typically male, highly educated, have high incomes, and often more than one car in their household. Additionally, BEV users perceive less functional barriers toward BEV use and have more positive attitudes and norms than CV users. The different profiles of these user groups suggest a separate analysis of potential factors of BEV adoption in both groups. In regression analyses, CV and BEV users' intention to use/purchase a BEV is modeled based on factors of the Theory of Planned Behavior extended by personal norm, perceived mobility necessities, and BEV experience. For CV users, symbolic attitudes related to BEVs are the most important factor of intention, while perceived functional barriers in terms of driving range are most relevant for BEV users' intention. How BEV users cope with trips of longer distance seems of particular relevance. In multiple car households, we found the percentage of actual BEV usage related to the type of other cars in the household, perceived functional barriers of BEVs as well as (successful) behavioral adaption to longer trips by BEVs. Based on the results, we discuss ways to increase BEV adoption for current users and non-users.

Abstract by the authors: According to the United Nations (UN), although cities occupy only 3% of Earth’s surface, they host more than half of the global population, are responsible for 70% of energy consumption, and 75% of carbon emissions. All this is a consequence of the massive urbanization verified since the 1950s and which is expected to continue in the coming decades. A crucial issue will therefore concern the management of existing cities and the planning of future ones, and this was also emphasized by the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and communities). Smart Cities are often seen as ideal urban environments in which the different dimensions of a city (economy, education, energy, environment, etc.) are managed successfully and proactively. So, one of the most important challenges cities will have to face, is to guide citizens towards a form of “clean” energy consumption, and the dimension on which decision-makers will be able to work is the decarbonization of transport. To achieve this, electric mobility could help reduce polluting emissions on the road. Within this research, the strategies that six Smart Cities (London, Hamburg, Oslo, Milan, Florence, and Bologna) have implemented to encourage the transition to this form of mobility have been studied. Through a systematic review of the literature (Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science) and through the study of the main political/energy documents of the cities, their policies on electric mobility have been evaluated. Then, for each city, SDG 11.6.2 was analyzed to assess the air quality in the last four years (2016–2019) and, therefore, the effectiveness of the policies. The analysis showed, in general, that the policies have worked, inducing reductions in the pollutants of PM2.5, PM10, NO2. In particular, the cities showed the most significant reduction in pollutant (above 20%) were Hamburg (−28% PM2.5 and −2%6 NO2), Milan (−25% PM2.5 and −52% NO2), and London (−26% NO2).

Abstract by the authors: Electric Vehicles (EVs) have emerged rapidly across the globe as a powerful eco-friendly initiative that if integrated well with an urban environment could be iconic for the host city's commitment to sustainable mobility and be a key ingredient of the smart city concept. This paper examines ways that will help us to develop a better understanding of how EVs can achieve energy use optimization and be connected with a smart city. As a whole, the present study is based on an original idea that would be useful in informing policy-makers, automotive manufacturers and transport operators of how to improve and embrace better EV technologies in the context of smart cities. The proposed approach is based on vehicles' and buildings' communication to share some special information related to the vehicles' status and to the road conditions. EVs can share their own information related to their energy consumption experience on a specific path. This information can be gathered in a gigantic database and used for managing the power inside these vehicles. In this field, this paper exposes a new approach to power management inside an electric vehicle based on two-way communication between vehicles and buildings. The principle of this method is established in two sections; the first one is related to vehicles' classification and the second one is attached to the buildings' recommendations, according to the car position. The classification problem is resolved using the support vector classification method. The recommendation phase is resolved using the artificial intelligence principle and a neural network was employed to give the best decision. The optimal decision will be calculated inside the building, according to its position and using the old vehicle's data, and transferred to the coming vehicle, for optimizing its energy consumption method in the corresponding building zone. Different possibilities and situations in this approach were discussed. The proposed power management methodology was tested and validated using Simulink/Matlab tool. Results related to the battery state of charge and to the consumed energy were compared at the end of this work, to show the efficiency of this approach.

Abstract by the authors: As one of the possibilities of reducing exhaust emissions, the article takes into account infrastructure and electric vehicles used in road transport. Taking into account the goal to achieve a 30% share of vehicle electric, the number of charging stations available in the entire European Union is not sufficient. There has been a slight increase in sales of electric vans and trucks in the EU in recent years. This may be due to the lack of available infrastructure which would render it possible to power them, and also from the lack of available delivery vehicles in the market. What is interesting, the number of electric vehicles in a country is not necessarily in proportion to the number of available charging stations. It is the authors' intention as well to indicate the potential directions of the development of a low-emission cargo transport in the European Union. Upon the basis of the results, it is ascertained that there is a strong correlation between the value of a country's GDP and the number of electric vehicle charging stations. A moderate correlation is also observed in the case of a country's population, as well as in the case of the market share of registered electric delivery vehicles in a country.

Abstract by the authors: The energy consumption of an electric vehicle is primarily due to the traction subsystem and the comfort subsystem. For a regular trip, the traction energy can be relatively constant but the comfort energy has variation depending on seasonal temperatures. In order to plan the annual charging operation of an eco-campus, a simulation tool is developed for an accurate determination of the consumption of an electric vehicle throughout year. The developed model has been validated by comparison with experimental measurement of a real vehicle on a real driving cycle. Different commuting trips are analyzed over a complete year. For the considered city in France (Lille), the comfort energy consumption has an overconsumption up to 33% in winter due to heating, and only 15% in summer due to air conditioning. The urban commuting driving cycle is more affected by the comfort subsystem than extra-urban trips.

Résumé par les auteurs: Notre audit avait pour objectif de juger de l'efficacité du soutien apporté par la Commission au déploiement d'infrastructures de recharge pour véhicules électriques ouvertes au public à l'échelle de l'UE. Nous avons constaté que, malgré plusieurs réussites comme l'émergence d'une prise standard commune au niveau de l'UE et l'amélioration des conditions d'accès aux différents réseaux de recharge, parcourir l'UE au volant d'un véhicule électrique reste compliqué. La disponibilité des bornes de recharge varie d'un pays à l'autre, les systèmes de paiement ne sont pas harmonisés sur la base d'un minimum d'exigences communes, et les informations accessibles aux utilisateurs ne sont pas suffisantes. Faute d'analyse approfondie du déficit d'infrastructures, la Commission n'a pas su veiller à ce que les fonds de l'UE soient affectés là où le besoin en est le plus impérieux. L'UE est encore loin de l'objectif qu'elle s'est fixé dans le cadre du pacte vert, à savoir atteindre le million de bornes de recharge en 2025, et elle ne s'est pas dotée d'une feuille de route stratégique globale pour l'électromobilité. Nous avons adressé à la Commission européenne plusieurs recommandations destinées à contribuer à améliorer le déploiement d'infrastructures de recharge ouvertes au public dans toute l'UE. Rapport spécial de la Cour des comptes européenne présenté en vertu de l'article 287, paragraphe 4, deuxième alinéa, du TFUE.

Abstract by the authors: According to the United Nations (UN), although cities occupy only 3% of Earth’s surface, they host more than half of the global population, are responsible for 70% of energy consumption, and 75% of carbon emissions. All this is a consequence of the massive urbanization verified since the 1950s and which is expected to continue in the coming decades. A crucial issue will therefore concern the management of existing cities and the planning of future ones, and this was also emphasized by the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially in Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and communities). Smart Cities are often seen as ideal urban environments in which the different dimensions of a city (economy, education, energy, environment, etc.) are managed successfully and proactively. So, one of the most important challenges cities will have to face, is to guide citizens towards a form of “clean” energy consumption, and the dimension on which decision-makers will be able to work is the decarbonization of transport. To achieve this, electric mobility could help reduce polluting emissions on the road. Within this research, the strategies that six Smart Cities (London, Hamburg, Oslo, Milan, Florence, and Bologna) have implemented to encourage the transition to this form of mobility have been studied. Through a systematic review of the literature (Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science) and through the study of the main political/energy documents of the cities, their policies on electric mobility have been evaluated. Then, for each city, SDG 11.6.2 was analyzed to assess the air quality in the last four years (2016–2019) and, therefore, the effectiveness of the policies. The analysis showed, in general, that the policies have worked, inducing reductions in the pollutants of PM2.5, PM10, NO2. In particular, the cities showed the most significant reduction in pollutant (above 20%) were Hamburg (−28% PM2.5 and −2%6 NO2), Milan (−25% PM2.5 and −52% NO2), and London (−26% NO2).

Abstract by the author: Governments around the world are planning to accelerate their efforts to decarbonize and electrify their transportation sector. In this article, I describe the key role charging stations play in electric vehicle (EV) markets and discuss how a lack of charging infrastructure can pose a barrier to EV adoption. Then I discuss Norway's experience with incentives for charging infrastructure and consumer subsidies. I conclude by highlighting key lessons from Norway and their implications for designing effective policies to support EV adoption.

Abstract by the authors: This study projects the EOL generation of EV batteries in Ireland out to 2050. A material flow analysis is conducted for EOL estimation in which the EV market diffusion is modelled in different transport policy benchmarks. The impact of the potential EOL value of EV batteries on EV market growth is explored. A temporal estimation of the reusable capacity of EOL EV batteries is provided to target the fitting second-use applications. While electric vehicles bring numerous environmental benefits during their lifetime, they could be a burden for waste management at the end of life if not managed properly. A circular waste management system, alternatively, suggests exploring the appropriate actions and policies to create the right environment for second-use applications. Such regulatory measures primarily require a temporal estimation of the volume of the end-of-life electric vehicle batteries which helps to distinguish the suitable applications, time, and level of investment in the repurposing market. From an end-of-life flow perspective, the profile of the end-of-life battery stock follows the growth of the electric vehicle market over time and vehicles' survival age. However, the level of uncertainties about the future trend of these vehicles and their efficiencies makes the end-of-life estimation highly challenging. This paper addresses these uncertainties in end-of-life battery stock estimation in Ireland by (i) modelling the electric vehicle market diffusion based on government policies and customers' preferences, and (ii) estimating electric vehicle lifetime based on a combination of current electric & conventional vehicles. Having the distribution of primary and end-of-life batteries over time, the impact of added value to electric vehicles due to the battery repurposing on their adoption in the first place is investigated. Results confirm the significant influence of government policies on the electric vehicle adoption profile. The temporal estimation of the reuse capacity of the end-of-life batteries indicates that how different levels of regulations and second-use support schemes end up to a different amount of reuse availability in end-of-life battery stock, ranging from several hundred to a few thousand megawatt-hours in 2050. Results also show that to what degree a potential second-use market for end-of-life electric vehicle batteries would increase the growth rate of electric vehicle uptake in Ireland.

Abstract by the authors: Energy and environmental issue are among the most relevant challenges to be solved in the near future. Electric vehicles (EVs) will play a key role in the solution by positively contribute to these two issues. The growth of the EV market both in Europe and the rest of the World in last years, arose a relevant question: to what extent are electric vehicles eco-friendly and cost effective in comparison with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)? This work presents a comparative study between battery electric vehicles and ICEVs from different European countries, with special focus on two relevant issues: economic viability and ecological impact. It is shown that in the European Countries, the economical payback is much variable. In other countries, the economic payback can vary between travelled distances of about 2500 km (Portugal) and 335 000 km (Czech Republic). The environmental benefit is reached after relatively low travelled distances, between 30 000 km (Norway) and 190 000 km (Poland), being more evenly distributed when compared to the economical payback. It is also shown how economic and environmental benefits depend on mobility profile, being improved for longer travel distance profiles. It was concluded that the reduction of the price of the EVs is necessary to make them more competitive in the automotive market. Further, it is important to combine both economic and environmental benefits by adopting policies within the European Union to reach a more uniform reality among the different countries, with more levelled prices and revenues (incentives, fees and taxes).

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