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Institutional aspects of the withdrawal process from the European Union - Brexit and post-Brexit; Miscevic, Tanja ; Puric, Nemanja; Međunarodni problemi (Srpskohrvatsko izd.), 2024, Vol.76 (2), p.177-200
Abstract: Interdependence in a globalized world implies managing processes in many areas that are regulated at the international level - this is the role that International Governmental Organizations have adopted during the century of their existence. Their work and success are causally linked to the competencies and decision-making processes, as well as to the breadth and agility of member states. This is the reason why many International Organizations do not provide options for withdrawal or exclusion from membership. In that regard, European Union, as a supranational international organization, is proving its uniqueness in the international organizing. Considering that the Lisbon Treaty envisaged for the first time institute of withdrawal in Article 50, this possibility has been the subject of numerous theoretical debates, but it also become practice. The UK's withdrawal agreement from the EU marked the beginning of new type of negotiations as well as the future relations between former Member State and the European Union; (...)
Abstract: This paper estimates how Brexit has affected goods trade between the United Kingdom and European Union. Using product-level trade flows between the EU and all other countries in the world as a comparison group, we find a sharp decline in trade from the UK to the EU and significant but smaller reductions in trade from the EU to the UK. However, when we estimate the size of the Brexit impact on trade using UK data and UK global trade as a benchmark, we find strikingly different results. We identify two key sources of this discrepancy. First, the UK's global exports grew relatively slowly. We argue these are not suitable as a no-Brexit counterfactual. Second, Brexit also led to breaks in the measurement of trade flows, particularly for the EU imports data. To resolve these issues, we combine UK-reported data for its trade with EU and EU data for its trade with the rest of the world to use as the appropriate benchmark for comparison. This generates an estimate that Brexit reduced trade by close to 20% in both directions.
Abstract: At the time it voted to exit in 2016, the UK was a leading economy within the EU. It contributed about 16 percent of the EU GDP, while the other EU countries accounted for almost half of UK's total trade. This study attempts to answer two research questions: First, how Brexit affected the EU–UK trade and second, how it affected the trade between remaining 27 EU members. To answer these questions, quarterly data are exploited for the period from 2005Q1 to 2022Q3 covering a total of 53 trading partners including the EU members. A gravity model that controls for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity and multilateral resistance is estimated by PPML. Three phases of Brexit (the referendum, transition, and post transition [under the TCA]) are analysed. The results indicate that the Brexit referendum phase depressed UK–EU trade by around 10.5%, and transition phase by around 15%. In both cases, particularly for the transition phase, the effect is greater on the UK imports from EU than the UK exports to EU. We do not find a significant effect due to the post transition (TCA) phase. Estimates show some mild but positive effect on intra‐EU trade of about 1.5% and 4.6% due to Brexit referendum and post Brexit respectively, but no significant effect from the transition phase. This suggests that some EU trade with the UK was redirected to other EU members. Hence UK should aggressively seek out new trade agreements with other countries and trade blocs as well as refine the workings of the trade and cooperation agreement signed with the EU to minimise the loss.
Abstract: This article examines the Brexit-driven remaking of some EU families into mixed-status families. Drawing on original research conducted in 2021–2022 with British, EU/EEA and non-EU/EEA citizens living in the UK or the EU/EEA, it shows how families whose members have previously enjoyed equal rights to freedom of movement across the EU/EEA variously negotiate the consequences of Brexit on their lives. Central to our analysis is the interplay between hardening borders and the stickiness of family relations, and its effects on families’ migration and settlement projects. The article brings to the fore these emerging entanglements offering a much-needed relational analysis of the impact of Brexit on the directly affected populations, while contributing more widely to expanding the existing scholarship on mixed-status families, by attending to the peculiar ways in which families whose members previously enjoyed equal status under EU law have experienced their transformation into subjects with unequal rights.
Abstract: In this article the authors explore how Brexit changes the social meanings and uses of formal national and EU citizenship and how these meanings and uses are stratified, including by migratory experience, class and age. They do so through in-depth interviews with Britons in Belgium, EU27 citizens ‘by birth’ residing in the UK, and Bangladeshis who naturalised in Italy before moving to the UK. The article highlights the differences both between the three groups and within the groups, along lines of class and age, in the expectations regarding rights linked to citizenship, in the salience of different rights (e.g. freedom of movement, access to welfare, voting), and in the availability of alternative resources to contain the impact of Brexit. The authors argue that the Brexit process not only highlights the value of citizenship as well as the added value of a citizenship of an EU member state, but that it also reveals how the value of citizenships is internally stratified.
Abstract: Law enforcement cooperation between the United Kingdom and the European Union has experienced substantial change. The practice and impact of police cooperation are aligned with various formal and informal arrangements previously based on a European framework, policy, legislation and process. Following Brexit, the United Kingdom became detached from some of these arrangements. Opposing sides of the Brexit debate argued that the implications of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union would result in outcomes ranging from improved police cooperation to fundamental damage to law enforcement combating cross-border and organised crime. While it is acknowledged that more change will occur in the policy and legislative framework that governs police cooperation between the United Kingdom and the European Union, this article explores the current situation from the perspective of interview accounts from police practitioners (n = 14) and academics (n = 3) working in the field. This article applied ‘nodes of governance’ to police cooperation between the United Kingdom and European Union. This article demonstrates a range of issues that have impeded the ability of the United Kingdom to work with its former partners. At the same time, good police relations remain, and informal police cooperation continues.
Abstract: The Article tackled with the topic of the impact of Brexit on the EU financial market. The most important changes were identified and defined. Among different types of implications the Author chose those which were important for the shape of the EU financial market. The Article identified all crucial changes in the EU law regulating financial market. In the Article there was the analysis of the single passport rule in the context of Brexit and the sability of equivalency mechanism in this context. The changes in BMR and EMIR implied by Brexit were analysed.
Abstract: This thematic issue on the causes and modes of European disintegration seeks to answer two main questions: What are the causes of (potential) European disintegration across countries? And what are the actual and potential modes of European disintegration? The articles on the causes of EU disintegration go beyond the immediate causes of Brexit, to date the prime example of European disintegration. They address, for instance, the impact of ignoring the results of referendums on EU treaty changes. The articles demonstrate that the extensively studied proximate causes of Brexit may be different from more long-term drivers of potential disintegration in the UK and other member states. The second question raises a point that has been largely overlooked. Going beyond the growing literature on Brexit, differentiated integration, and non-compliance, the articles on the modes of European disintegration address issues such as (temporary) opt-outs from the Schengen agreement. The thematic issue is innovative not only due to the questions it raises but also by deploying a multi-disciplinary social science perspective. Contributions are quantitative, qualitative, and theoretical from a wide array of social science disciplines. Taken together, the contributions to this thematic issue advance scholarly understanding of European (dis)integration.
Abstract: The article analyses the impact of Brexit on hard Eurosceptic discourses in the Visegrád Group countries from 2015 to 2023. As the negative implications of Brexit for the UK economy became clear, many hard Eurosceptics softened their rhetoric, using the referendum as a proxy for a ‘hard’ exit. Whilst the classical soft–hard typology remains dominant amongst scholars in the study of Euroscepticism, the case of Brexit shows that long‐term principled opposition to the European Union (EU) can hide behind equivocal rhetoric. The article suggests studying the changing tactics of Eurosceptics by matching current EU and domestic contexts together with the long‐term points of departure of hard Eurosceptics.
Abstract: The agri-food sectors in Northern Ireland (NI) and Ireland (IRL) have become more integrated with more investments from IRL in the north and advances in all Ireland cooperation on animal health and welfare, and disease control. However, as both jurisdictions are considered structurally similar and both have a large dairy and beef sector, they are competing in the Great Britain (GB) market for agri-food products. When considering the island of Ireland agri-food sectors in the context of Brexit and the NI Protocol, there will be clear winners and losers under different Brexit and NI protocol scenarios. What constitutes a relatively "good" economic outcome for NI farmers may come at the expense of IRL farmers, while relatively "good" economic outcomes for IRL farmers may amplify negative outcomes for NI farmers. This paper analyses the impacts of the NI Protocol in terms of what it means for the agri-food sectors in IRL, NI, but also for the island of Ireland (ISL) as a whole.
Abstract: This paper investigates the hidden effects for UK firms of the 2016 choice to leave the European Union (EU). By applying a difference-in-difference (DID) methodology to a sample of 1166 firm-year observations from 2012 to 2018, we observe a decrease in UK firms’ environmental and social performance compared to those headquartered in the EU. Our evidence also stresses the importance of the adoption of the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) standards in reducing the negative impact of Brexit on sustainability performance. Moreover, supported by the stakeholder theory, we confirm the existence of an ESG ‘insurance mechanism’ reducing the detrimental effect of Brexit on UK firms’ market risks. Overall, our results uncover the social responsibility effects of exiting the EU's stakeholder-oriented regulatory approach emerge in terms of a greater exposure of UK firms to future financial risk.
Abstract: Brexit repatriates agriculture policy and subsidies after over 40 years of determination by the European Commission. The paper starts by describing the baseline at Brexit, noting the relatively small economic contribution, the problems of competitiveness given the UK’s geology and geography, and the poor environmental outcomes. The scope for improvement is correspondingly large, and in particular through the impacts of the new agricultural policy based upon public money for public goods and for England, the Environmental Land Management Schemes. Larger and more long-term impacts will come through new trade agreements, through new technologies, including digitalization, robotics, and genetics, and through carbon farming and offsets. Finally, the paper sets out a framework for a future assessment of the impact of Brexit.
Abstract: The UK left the European single market in energy on 31 December 2020, having been a leading light in its promotion. It entered into a new energy relationship with the EU-27 as outlined in the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on 1 January 2021. This paper discusses what has happened to the UK energy sector since the Brexit referendum of June 2016. Since our previous paper on this topic in 2017, there has been a significant clarification in the impact of Brexit on the energy sector in the UK. We outline what the TCA says about energy. We then discuss the current and potential future effects of Brexit on the UK electricity and gas systems in turn. We observe that the likely economic welfare impacts on electricity are larger than the impacts on gas, but the overall microeconomic impact appears likely to be modest (but negative). We offer a number of concluding observations.
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