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Abstract: Since 2004, competition between the European Union (EU) and Russia over the European political, economic and security order intensified sporadically, with a focal point in Ukraine. The EU's main mitigation tactic in response to this competition used to be denial, but in 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this approach became untenable. As a result, the EU entered the competition as an emerging geopolitical actor in three important respects: engaging in a conflict over the European order; utilising its (still limited) hard power; and extending its geographical borders. Most importantly, the EU is actively trying to shape the future of the European order that was challenged by Russia's war against Ukraine. While pursuing its goals predominantly through civilian means, the EU has also taken major steps to strengthen its hard power capabilities and contributed military assistance. Furthermore, by granting candidate country status to Ukraine, it took a clear stance on its future borders, while these were violently contested.
Abstract: The article aims to improve our understanding of the politics of energy policy in the EU in the context of the war in Ukraine. It shows how the energy policy debate is contextualised by the suffering of Ukraine and the country’s efforts to resist Russian aggression and full-scale war. An abductive qualitative content analysis of 10 European Parliament debates on economic sanctions against Russia between March 2014 and October 2022 is used to reconstruct four narratives of the EU’s transnational solidarity with Ukraine. The following solidarity narratives are compared in terms of underlying notions of solidarity, proposed policy solutions, and their temporal aspects: “solidarity based on the common enemy,” “solidarity as mutual sacrifice,” “solidarity based on shared independence,” and “solidarity based on our resilience.” We find that despite the prominence of the solidarity frame in all four narratives, there were latent relevant differences in the urgency of the proposed solutions. Moreover, the references to suffering in these narratives tend to contrast “their” and “our” suffering, rather than calling for help for Ukraine.
Abstract: This paper discusses the way the European Union (EU) needs to adapt its economic diplomacy toolbox to tackle current challenges pertaining to the Russian war on Ukraine. It investigates the way in which the EU has developed its economic diplomacy in Ukraine, focusing on the scope of this diplomacy and its efficacy in responding to Russia's assertiveness and, ultimately, to Russia's aggression. The research identifies those initiatives that may be part of the priority toolkit used for sustaining the EU's strategic goals in Ukraine and beyond, considering the evolving global economic environment. The paper concludes with a comprehensive listing of the EU's challenges and opportunities for further developing its economic diplomacy, including as a solution or a response to the Ukrainian reconstruction needs.
Abstract: This article argues that the Ukraine-EU summits have served as one of the effective political instruments of cooperation, contributing significantly to advancing the shared goals of both sides. By analyzing the evolution of these summits in the 1990s and after signing the Association Agreement, and their impact on both domestic and regional dynamics, this article will shed light on the multifaceted contributions of this institutional mechanism to the Ukraine-EU partnership. These summits serve as platforms for high-level political dialogue, setting the strategic direction for the bilateral relationship and monitoring progress in AA implementation. Examining the effectiveness of Ukraine-EU summits necessitates not only acknowledging their achievements but also critically evaluating their limitations and challenges. This article delves into these complexities, highlighting both the success stories and areas for improvement. Ultimately, it seeks to offer insights into the future of this vital partnership, considering the current geopolitical landscape and the ever-evolving needs of both Ukraine and the EU.
Abstract: The potency of economic sanctions imposed on nations depends on demand and supply adjustment possibilities. Adverse GDP impacts will be maximal when import, export, production, distribution and finance are inflexible (universal non-substitution). This paper elaborates on these conditions and quantifies the maximum GDP loss that Western sanctions could have inflicted on Russia in 2022–2023. It reports the World Bank’s predictions, contrasts them with the results and draws inferences about the efficiency of Russia’s workably competitive markets. This paper shows that Russia’s economic system exhibits moderate universal substitutability and is less vulnerable to punitive discipline than Western policymakers suppose. The likelihood that economic sanctions will compel the Kremlin to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity ceteris paribus is correspondingly low, even though war reduces Russia’s quality of existence. Western economic sanctions serve narrow geostrategic ends that are reconcilable with Pareto-efficient free trade and globalization, if precision-targeted, but as the Russo-Ukrainian war intensifies, an expanded array of novel and dubiously legal sanctions is degrading free trade, and spurring de-globalization and anti-Western coalitions. If this armed combat is prolonged, the goals of free trade and globalization could be set back for decades.
Abstract: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought about diplomatic condemnation across Europe and military support for Kyiv amid an uptick in European collective identity. Yet national responses differed significantly in terms of their contribution, their consistency, the degree of underlying contestation, their willingness to lead, and their choice of institutional frameworks. Explaining this variation requires an understanding of the interaction between systemic forces and a host of unit-level attributes, including military capabilities and geopolitical position, ideas and identities, and domestic politics. This introductory article examines each of these factors with a view to explaining the underlying variation in European responses, engaging with theoretical insights from Neoclassical Realism and Foreign Policy Analysis. Drawing on examples from the Special Section, we show how the divergent responses of several European countries – France, the United Kingdom, Poland, Germany, Estonia, and Sweden – can be explained by reference to these three categories.
Abstract: As the European Union (EU) was slowly re-emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, it faced another unprecedented shock: Russia's large-scale military invasion of Ukraine. In responding to Russia's invasion, however, the EU was able to build on the legal and policy measures that it had developed to address the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, NextGenerationEU (NGEU) and the use of common debt provided a template that the EU could use to mobilize financial resources to support Ukraine against Russia's aggression.
Abstract: The European Union's (EU) external governance enjoys significant attention in the literature. Yet its outcomes are usually assessed with reference to strategic documents or scholars' self-designed criteria. This article contributes to the ongoing debate with a discourse analysis focusing on the perceptions of anti-corruption reform outcomes in Ukraine by actors on different levels in the EU. Simultaneously, structural factors are incorporated into the analysis. It demonstrates that although constant progress is officially proclaimed by the EU, even technical advisers disagree on how success in this crucial domain is understood and how to measure it. High-level representatives face a balancing act between conditionality demands, sovereignty limitations and geopolitical considerations. This explains the official signalling by the EU and the development of its rule-of-law reform conditionality. The outcome is a potential state of moral hazard and raise the question whether EU external governance has not become a victim of its ‘own success’.
Abstract: This paper looks at the way the European Union has shifted its policymaking process to adapt to the crisis situation in Ukraine and how this serves the EUs goal of increasing its geopolitical power, becoming a global geopolitical actor. Looking at the specific geopolitical dimensions, the paper argues that the EU has upgraded its geopolitical posture, through cohesive policies taken against the aggressor. Following close monitoring of the EU working sessions and the flow of news, and considering focused interviews on the future of the EU, given the current events, this research brings forth two main scenarios for the EU, commenting on the potential risks for the blocs unity considering the Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond.
Abstract: This article analyses the evolving nature of the strategic relationship between Ukraine and the EU since the onset of the second decade of the 21st century. The author aims to show that, although the two sides have for years been elevating their ties through the neighbourhood policy and the Eastern Partnership strategic initiative, Kyiv's ultimate ambition has always been focused on securing the EU membership perspective. The author considers the Ukrainian EU membership request precarious due to the Union's concerns over stability, Kyiv's territorial integrity problems and the ongoing war, the unfavourable impact for the current membership candidates, but also since such a request sets a precedent for the other eastern partners. To explicate the abovementioned aspects, the author primarily uses the historical method and the document analysis, to clarify in greater detail the chief political events which have gradually led towards the current state. Research conclusions point out that, despite Ukraine's right to apply for EU membership, such a request is unlikely to result in a speedy accession, due to a variety of abovementioned aspects, coupled with a complicated decision-making process in the Union in that regard. In spite of that, the EU intends to continue supporting Ukraine as a strategic partner in a variety of domains, including also an indirect aid in combating the Russian military incursion. The author finds that the EU?s response to the membership application will have extensive ramifications not only on the two parties? relations, but also on the enlargement policy and the Eastern Partnership domain.
Abstract: Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has upended Europe's security order, with many observers calling it a turning point for the European Union. This article contends, however, that the EU's response has been less a turning point and more of an epiphany, providing a reality check for the EU and its member states about how far European foreign policy cooperation has evolved in recent decades. It suggests that an understanding of the EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine requires consideration of the member states' foreign policy co-operation, which has intensified over the past half-century, and its underpinning norm which we term a ‘collective European responsibility to act’. In emphasizing this norm, we identify core ideas about the functioning of collective European foreign policy. We re-examine three key preoccupations of the EU foreign policy-making practice and assessment through the lens of the collective European responsibility to act and show how it enables a different and novel re-reading of the added value of EU foreign policy cooperation. The EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine thus serves as a timely focusing event that demands a rethink of the premises that have underpinned our analysis and understanding of collective European foreign policy-making over decades.
Abstract: In this article, the author examines the dynamic evolution of the Visegrad Group (V4) countries in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. Although V4 cooperation is deeply rooted in shared historical experiences, recent geopolitical challenges have revealed significant differences among member countries. Poland and the Czech Republic are strongly supportive of Ukraine and oriented towards NATO, while Hungary and Slovakia are more ambivalent, creating internal tensions. The author examines the factors that shape national identities and their influence on these divergent responses, highlighting that these factors have implications for the future of the V4 countries. The researcher used mixed methods to analyse official documents, political speeches and opinion poll data from the V4 countries, to examine the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on V4 unity and solidarity, and to consider the implications for the future of the V4 countries. The findings point to a fragile unity and growing concerns about the V4's ability to respond coherently to external threats.
Abstract: The Russian–Ukrainian war is transforming world institutions, including NATO. The partnership and cooperative security policy, enshrined in NATO’s previous concept, was defined by a sustainable world order and international law. The war in Ukraine demonstrated the incompetence of major world security institutions and defined the challenges of their rapid transformation to effective reformatting. NATO, which has a new format for the organization’s development after the Ramstein meeting on April 26, 2022, actively joined this process. At the same time, the contemporary resolution of war and peace issues requires a transition from the concept of “peace agenda” to that of peace engineering. NATO’s peacemaking capabilities in resetting the interaction and transformation of U.N. peacekeeping determine the transition from nonsystemic peacemaking activities to the formation of a peace engineering program environment, which consists of the political-military, diplomatic, political and economic, logistical, social and humanitarian, and environmental and technogenic environments.
Abstract by the author: In this essay, I discuss some of the dominant ways of reasoning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. First, I examine the duality of the contemporary geopolitical condition, and the ways in which the invasion is understood to challenge the global liberalist project premised on economic competition rather than territorial contestation. Second, I briefly scrutinize the realist mode of explaining and understanding the Russian invasion and its problematic tenets from the perspective of small states. I argue that the liberalist and realist framings of world politics are, at their heart, reasonably similar. Both share and articulate a belief that there is a coherent geopolitical global order, and that it is the duty of powerful states to maintain and enforce that order.
Abstract: This research examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Russian hegemony in the post-Soviet sphere (Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Armenia). Hegemony is conceptualized through coercion, consent, and attraction. The study concludes that while Russia positions itself as a hegemon in the post-Soviet domain, its military actions in Ukraine are undermining its hegemonic status. Rather than enhancing its potential, the invasion of Ukraine has led to a drain of material resources and diminished Russia’s capacity to engender consensus among those it seeks to lead. Russia is also losing its attractiveness for potential followers in the region.
Abstract: The EU and Africa’s African Union held their sixth summit on 17-18 February 2022: a week later Russia invaded the Ukraine. In the short-term, European focus shifted from Africa but increasingly EU officials and member states are looking towards Africa. The EU seeks to step up cooperation with some African countries to help replace imports of Russian natural gas and reduce dependence on Moscowby almost two-thirds in 2022. The EU has also revised its list of critical minerals, which it is members seek to guarantee supply chains. This article assesses the evolution of EU-Africa relations, particularly since December 2007 with the launch of the Joint Africa-EU Strategy. The EU’s Africa focus is increasingly more strategic, and coherent, this is still not the case for Africa whose common interests towards Europe remain fragmented although the launch of the continental African Free Continental Trade Area (AfCTA) is a positive development. Looking forward it will be reinvigorated trade and investment that needs to become the heart of Africa-EU relations if this partnership is to prosper – not security, aid and counter migration that has framed past EU focus.
Abstract: The following is an edited transcript of the 108th in a series of Capitol Hill conferences convened by the Middle East Policy Council. The event took place on April 22, 2022, via Zoom, with Council Executive Director Bassima Alghussein moderating.
Abstract by the author: Im Konflikt um die Ukraine treffen postimperiale Nachwehen nach dem Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion, russischer Neoimperialismus, geopolitisches Tauziehen um das europäische Herzland und US-Strategie zur Konsolidierung der erodierenden Pax Americana mittels eines möglichst tiefen Grabens quer durch Europa aufeinander. Es besteht kein Anlass, auch nur einen der treibenden Akteure sympathisch zu finden oder seine Motive zu beschönigen. Auch die Frage, ob die elektorale Despotie in Russland oder die Oligarchenherrschaft in der Ukraine näher an unseren freiheitlich-demokratischen Werten liegen oder den Lebensinteressen der Menschen vor Ort dienlicher sind, gehört eher zur propagandistischen Begleitmusik. Außer Zweifel steht, dass der Konflikt um die Ukraine geeignet ist, die europäische Friedensordnung fundamental zu erschüttern, die letzten Reste gemeinsamer Sicherheit zu begraben und eine dauerhafte Periode offen feindlicher Konfrontation einzuläuten, immer gefährlich knapp am ultimativen Gewaltausbruch
Abstract by the authors: Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has opened up an opportunity for the United States to assert international leadership once again and even recapture some trappings of hegemony, which have been eroded in recent years. As the war has upended the old international order, the Biden administration is facing questions regarding the future direction of America’s global engagement in the “post-February 24, 2022” world. This article zooms in on five sets of challenges that the U.S. needs to deal with if it wants to sustain the “hegemonic moment” brought about by the war in Ukraine. Without attention and resolve to mitigate these challenges, the re-emergence of U.S. leadership in the transatlantic domain, not to mention any visions of reasserting U.S. hegemony more broadly, may prove but a flash in the pan.
Abstract by the author: Germany's recent Ostpolitik (Eastern Policy) has become a major topic in Western discussions about how to deal best with Vladimir Putin's Russia. This essay proceeds from Interdependence Theory to argue that the Berlin-promoted Nord Stream gas pipeline projects are loosening Russian-Ukrainian economic ties, and thereby easing conflict between the two post-Soviet states. Ukraine's surprisingly peaceful development during its first 20 years as an independent state is contrasted with the escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv in 2013–2014. The completion of the first Nord Stream pipe in October 2012 is seen as a crucial development that untied the Kremlin's hand vis-à-vis Ukraine. The lowering of Moscow's dependence on the Ukrainian gas transportation system, due to the new Baltic Sea pipeline, eventually led to a territorial conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Abstract: The main features of war shock are substantially different from those of the preceding COVID-19 shock. The EU economy is showing important elements of resilience. The existing structural forces and adaptive capacity of the EU economy are clear indications that it is capable of transformation and avoiding recession. The dynamics of the war is also crucial in terms of economic impacts. There are still many uncertainties about the future course of the war and its ramifications. The fundamental question is whether the war is heading in the direction of escalation or de-escalation. Unless the war spreads beyond Ukraine and the conventional means of warfare, its global economic consequences may be limited after the initial shock. New adjustment processes in the field of green and digital transition can be set in motion in parallel with the suffering and turmoil of war shock. New market players could emerge in the energy markets. The prolonged war continues to challenge the Ukrainian economy, but it can remain viable with massive external support. The Russian economy could suffer serious erosion, with its comparative advantage being wasted. There is a real threat of deglobalisation and the emergence of a fragmented world economy, but the counteracting factors appear to be much stronger. However, the prolonged war continues to pose major and unpredictable threats to the countries affected directly and indirectly, to Europe and to the world economy.
Abstract: Amid Ukraine's geopolitical turmoil, a ripple effect is echoing across global agricultural and food systems - a phenomenon with far-reaching implications for producers, traders, and consumers across the globe. This systematic study delves into this intricate interaction, examining scholarly literature to determine the magnitude and complexities of the war's impact on global agri-food systems. Utilizing a rigourous methodology, we screened 236 articles from the Web of Science database as of March 2023, narrowing the corpus to 62 significant publications that meet comprehensive eligibility criteria. The war affected all food security dimensions, but the most dramatic impact was on food access. Indeed, the decrease in domestic food production and productivity; the damage to production assets, food production, and food stocks; the increase in production input prices; changes in land use and land degradation; and labour shortage in rural areas reduced food supply and availability, especially that of cereals. (…)
Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 has caused significant disruption to global agricultural markets. As Ukraine is the world's ninth largest producer and fifth largest exporter of wheat, the widespread, destructive effects of the war have serious implications for food prices and global food security. We analyze the impacts of this war on production, consumption, trade, and prices of wheat using a global spatial equilibrium model (SEM). Our results suggest that this conflict causes wheat prices to increase in every country (by around 2%) except Ukraine where prices fell by about 27%. Though other wheat exporting countries augment their exports to capture the market share lost by Ukraine in major importing countries, many of these importing countries suffer from reduced wheat consumption. Not surprisingly, Russia benefits by exporting wheat at the expense of Ukraine to importing countries that traditionally relied on Ukrainian wheat. Because of the war, we estimate that Ukraine's wheat producers experience a $1.4 billion loss in producer surplus.
Abstract: The unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 is imposing a terrible human cost. In this paper, we use the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to quantify the impact of the war on the global economy. The war represents a massive cost, equivalent to 1% of global GDP in 2022, or about $1.5 trillion valued at purchasing power parity exchange rates (PPP), compared with our GDP forecast made at the beginning of 2022. Europe is the region affected most, given trade links its proximity to Ukraine and Russia and its reliance on energy and food supplies from those countries. GDP in Europe is expected to shrink by more than 1% in 2022 compared with our forecast at the beginning of 2022. In Western Europe, Germany will be worst affected, followed by France and Italy. GDP in ‘Developing Europe’, where Ukraine is the largest representative, is expected to shrink by 30%. The war will also add about 2% to global inflation in 2022 and 1% in 2023, compared with NIESR's inflation projection at the beginning of 2022.
Abstract: This paper uses a product-level empirical model of bilateral trade to examine the global trade implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that imports from Ukraine were 47.3% below the counterfactual between February and August 2022. The Russia–Ukraine war led to significant trade diversion for Russia, primarily benefiting Russian mineral oil and gas exports to Europe and Asia. The analysis also reveals that the trade adjustments operate mainly through import price hikes, with notable heterogeneity across product groups and regions. The findings indicate that the Ukraine–Russia war had significant trade implications for Ukraine and Russia but only limited ones for other countries.
Abstract: The war in Ukraine has caused significant losses to the Ukrainian agricultural sector and threatened global food security. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian agriculture in its initial phase, examine the responses of Ukrainian agricultural policy and outline key elements for the post-war development of the Ukrainian agricultural sector. Using a systematic approach that includes thorough data collection and analysis from official sources, the Ukrainian press, relevant legislation and statistical data, our study focuses on the first five months of the conflict, from February 24, 2022 to July 24, 2022, to identify the main challenges during this period. The agricultural policy analysis shows that the Ukrainian government has adopted a reactive approach, including tax simplification, affordable credit, deregulation, financial support for the agricultural sector, reduced prices for inputs and resources to support farmers, and improvements in logistics. Critical factors identified for post-war development include repatriation and agricultural education, support for small and medium-sized farms, integration into global markets, emphasis on organic practices and sustainable development, and digitalization in agriculture. The integration of a systematic overview of the Ukrainian agricultural sector and an analysis of key elements of post-war development provides essential insights for policy-makers and researchers concerned with the impact of war on the agricultural sector and food security.
Abstract: This article reviews the literature on the multifaceted consequences of historical conflict. We revisit three key topics, which are especially relevant for the current Ukrainian context. (1) The negative long-term impact of bombing campaigns and political repression against civilians. (2) The interplay between forced migration, refugees and war. (3) The role of gender and war, with a special focus on sex ratios and conflict-related sexual violence. We conclude with an empirical investigation of the Russian war against Ukraine, including aforementioned historical determinants such as ethnic populations, historical political repression and voting outcomes.
Abstract: The war in Ukraine has caused severe disruption to national and worldwide food supplies. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat, maize, and oilseeds, staples that are now suffering a war-triggered supply risk. This paper describes the background of the problem and illustrates current trends by outlining some of the measures that may be deployed to mitigate the conflict’s impacts on achieving SDG 2 (Zero hunger), especially focusing on ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture. In order to understand the main research strands in the literature that are related to food security in the context of wars, the authors adopted a bibliometric literature review based on the co-occurrence of terms technique, conducted with 631 peer-reviewed documents extracted from the Scopus database. To complement the bibliometric assessment, ten case studies were selected to narrow down the food insecurity aspects caused by the war in Ukraine. The co-occurrence analysis indicated four different thematic clusters. In the next stage, an assessment of the current situation on how war affects food security was carried out for each one of the clusters, and the reasons and possible solutions to food security were identified. Policy recommendations and theoretical implications for food security in the conflict context in Ukraine were also addressed.
Abstract: This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations for analyzing the economic dimensions of a territorial military conflict. The Intraregional Trade Disruption from War Simulator (ITDW-Simulator) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of the military conflict. The model suggests two primary indicators and four secondary indicators. The final trade suffocation index (TS-Index) and the final investment desgrowth from war function (−δw) measure trade disruption’s potential impact on international trade patterns and economic development. The agriculture exports, industrial and manufacturing exports, service exports, and FDI flows capture the trade and investment interdependency. The model investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukraine military conflict on the bilateral trade and investment between the Russian Federation and the European Union.
Abstract: This study explores whether the European Union's (EU's) response to the large‐scale refugee displacement from Ukraine in 2022 has led to a more equitable sharing of responsibilities amongst member states with regard to the Syrian refugee crisis. To do so, responsibility sharing is assessed by comparing actual and capacity‐based refugee shares for each country, drawing the definition of the latter from an improved version of the European Commission's distribution key. Our analysis reveals that whilst disparities in actual refugee shares between countries are somewhat smaller in the current emergency humanitarian situation compared with the Syrian crisis, such disparities almost double when countries' reception capacities are incorporated as a benchmark. Thus, the study reveals a kind of paradox: greater disparities in responsibility sharing in a context of high solidarity amongst countries for the reception of refugees.
Abstract: The article considers the issue of the migration crisis of Ukrainian refugees to EU member states caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. An elucidation was made as to the quantity of Ukrainian refugees taken in by European states since the Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine commenced. An analysis of forms of protection for individuals in the European Union is conducted, including refugee status and temporary protection. The legislation of refugee status in the EU is represented through the prism of the analysis of the Council Directive 2001/55/EC on temporary protection. The key difference between temporary protection and refugee status is defined.The key problems faced by European countries are highlighted; concurrently, the obstacles experienced by Ukrainian refugees are presented, namely, obtaining housing and employment. Special attention was paid to the issue of “fatigue” and exhaustion of social systems and ordinary citizens in EU countries. The authors present the results of the study on the mechanisms of providing protection and asylum to Ukrainian refugees in the EU. Furthermore, the 10-point strategy suggested by the European Commission to the European Council and the Justice and Home Affairs Council in order to support EU countries in their endeavor of admitting Ukrainian refugees has been duly given attention. The core research objectives revolve around the effectiveness of protection mechanisms for Ukrainian refugees in the EU, and any consequences said system may bring about for both the EU and Ukraine.
Abstract: The Russian aggression in Ukraine led to the activation of the 2001 Temporary Protection Directive by the European Union to organise the reception of displaced persons fleeing the conflict. This is an unprecedented move, in the twenty years of its existence, this directive has never been implemented. It is therefore interesting to observe what this protection consists of, but also to recontextualise its activation in the wider context of the European Union's immigration and border control policy. The mechanism is indeed very protective for the persons concerned, which puts into perspective the strict requirements of the Union regarding the access of third-country nationals to European territory.
Abstract: Millions of people were forced to flee Ukraine after Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, one of the fastest displacements in decades. Citizens' response in EU countries (where most displaced Ukrainians arrived) has been considerably more positive than in past refugee crises. This study investigates several possible drivers of this difference. We conduct a large conjoint experiment in six EU Member States, eliciting willingness to provide temporary protection to hypothetical groups of future migrants whose characteristics we manipulate systematically. We find that all of the experimental variables make a difference. We observe a greater support for protecting groups consisting of relatively many children and many women rather than men. The region of origin and the religious affiliation play a major role. Finally, we see greater support for people fleeing a war rather than poverty or the adverse consequences of climate change. While all these effects are identified consistently across different groups of respondents (e.g., the respondent's religion played a limited role), effect sizes vary considerably between countries. Finally, we randomly manipulate which aspect of temporary protection (social housing, access to the labour market) is emphasised in our communication to the participants. We find this manipulation to have a limited effect on the public support for the policy.
Abstract: Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, beginning in February 2022, millions of Ukrainians have fled their homes. Among the forcibly displaced are stateless persons who lived in Ukraine prior to the war, who are particularly vulnerable because they do not possess any nationality. Unable to prove their identity, stateless internally displaced persons and refugees experience numerous challenges along their flight routes. The measures adopted by European countries to support Ukrainian refugees have been successful in many ways, but insufficiently consider the situation of stateless persons. This article explores the protection gaps in the laws of Ukraine and neighbouring countries, as well as at the European level, and critically evaluates those gaps in light of the relevant international protection regimes, ie international statelessness law, international refugee law, international and European human rights law and international humanitarian law. From the analysis, it can be concluded that possession of identity documentation and legal status remain crucial conditions for crossing borders and accessing protection.
Abstract: Experiencing traumatic events often drives profound post-traumatic stress (PTS), but trauma also has the potential to engender positive consequences, such as post-traumatic growth (PTG). Traumatic experiences may also lead to gaining new identities which can have both protective (i.e., social cure) or damaging (i.e., social curse) effects on health and well-being. This study aims to examine the role of new social identities and related social identity resources acquired after war-related experiences (i.e., identification with a new host society and identification as a refugee) in contributing to different trauma trajectories. The sample included 468 participants who left Ukraine due to the war that commenced on February 24th, 2022, and became residents of Ireland or Poland. The findings indicate that identification with the host society was associated with lower PTS and greater PTG. Whereas identification with refugees was related to higher PTS, but it was not directly associated with PTG. Further, the psychological resources derived from these new identities mediated the relationship between identification strength and PTG. This study offers practical insights for interventions targeting refugees in their new countries of residence. •New identities arising from war-related traumatic experiences have distinct trauma trajectories.•Identification with the host society was associated with lower PTS and greater PTG, indicating a ‘social cure’ effect.•Identification with refugees was associated with greater PTS and not related to PTG, indicating a ‘social curse’ effect.•Social identities resources mediated the relationship between new identities and post-traumatic outcomes.
Abstract: In the context of the EU-Ukraine Accession agreement, Ukraine started large scale public health systems reform back in 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic tested the response capacity of the national public health system and led to some improvement during the pandemic such as on laboratory capacity. It also generated lessons for strengthening national and subnational health emergency preparedness and response. Multiple interventions, including a Joint External Evaluation led to the adoption of the Public Health System Law in 2022, laying the foundation to bolster health promotion, disease prevention, and health protection. The Ukrainian Public Health Centre was substantially strengthened, partly oriented on models in other European countries. Corresponding centers for diseases control and prevention at the oblast level were reformed and a subnational network of these centers was created. While the war has a significant impact on the public health system, infrastructure, people and more, decision makers and professionals keep working on sustaining and moving forward the achievements on public health reforms, for example with the adoption of the National Health Strategy 2030 and the adoption of the National Health Security Plan. Further legal and strategic preparations are afoot to strengthen public health services governance capacity, financing, institutional innovation and development, and public health workforce development.
Abstract by the author: None of the three revolutions in Ukraine's modern history as an independent state has been able to both solve the problem of political representation and undertake the task of building sustainable democratic institutions. Ukraine's scores from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) between 2000 and 2019 show the ups and downs of state capacity and democratic accountability and illustrate not only how the revolutions remain unfinished but also how the country seems to be unable to consistently advance state formation. Ukraine has yet to find a stable developmental path. Accordingly, BGI scores show that Ukrainian politics and society continue to have difficulty advancing towards a corridor of good governance, where state capacity and accountability reinforce each other and enhance public goods provision. Instead, Ukraine is alternating between authoritarian and democratic development patterns. However, the Russian invasion that began on 24 February 2022 has contributed to uniting and consolidating Ukrainian society and politics and could considerably push the nation‐building process forward.
Abstract: The article examines the application of the concept of legal pluralism to the interaction between the European Union (EU) administrative legal order and the administrative legal orders of associated or candidate States as part of the process of aligning national legislation with EU standards. This process involves multiple sources of integration obligations derived from the Association Agreement, accession negotiations, conditions for economic aid, administrative cooperation, and EU-funded modernization programs. The authors suggest that a pluralistic approach may provide associated or candidate States with a degree of flexibility in choosing specific scopes, models, and time frames to align their national legislation with EU laws. This can help to mitigate and offset the imbalance in States’ relations with the EU resulting from the latter’s normative dominance. At the same time, various sources can lead to conflicts between integration obligations and approaches to harmonizing national administrative rules and practices.
Abstract: Data on 2251 small and medium-size Ukrainian farms in 2021 and 2022 is used to assess the short-term impact of the Russian invasion on productive performance of a sector that is often excluded from official statistics. Once weather is adjusted for, the area response remained limited. However, higher transport cost and input prices severely reduced farm profitability, implying that 46 % of farms had a negative cash flow and most were credit constrained. Total factor productivity varies significantly across size groups, but it is not significantly different between formal and informal farms in the same size group. Despite the war, agricultural producers remain optimistic about the sector’s fundamentals, implying that enabling them to invest, e.g., via digital access to markets and mortgage lending, could foster investment in higher value products and better coverage of small and medium producers by official statistics could capture such improvements and inform policy-making.
Abstract: This analytical paper explores the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion on Ukrainian politics and society since 2022. The war has reshaped the political landscape, solidifying existing power structures while bringing military veterans and social organizations to the forefront. The role of Ukrainian oligarchs has diminished due to financial setbacks and the “anti-oligarch law,” though some are adapting through charitable activities. Additionally, the Ukrainian government is curtailing the influence of the Moscow-affiliated church as part of a broader decolonization effort. The article also examines how the conflict has accelerated Ukraine’s drive for EU and NATO integration, with rising public support fostering domestic reforms and anti-corruption measures.
Abstract by the author: The fight against corruption is presented as a leading principle in policy papers and at donor conferences discussing Ukraine's reconstruction. It therefore mirrors the usual narrative surrounding post‐war reconstruction and democracy promotion attempts. However, reconstruction aid has historically been used for illicit means by elites and ended up strengthening an uneven system rather than building a resilient and successful country, despite the window of opportunity for the latter. Rather than just proposing principles, this paper therefore poses the question of how actors involved in the reconstruction process can be bound to stick to their previously propagated and formally existing principles. The analysis combines academic and policy‐oriented studies and highlights the combined importance of the external and internal dimension for a successful outcome. It proposes a ‘double conditionality’ mechanism, where an independent, technocratic institution holds frozen, Russian assets and partially reimburses Western donors only after successful audits on the reconstruction aid are conducted. This conditionality puts domestic pressure on aid givers to follow through with the anti‐corruption conditions formulated beforehand and to call out any reform bluff on Kyiv's side. Paired with a credible EU accession perspective, this can bring about the much‐needed stimulus for a build back better scenario.
Abstract by the authors: Ukraine has been facing unprecedented challenges since 2014. A Revolution of dignity makes Ukraine turn closer to the EU and NATO, while ongoing and expanded Russian aggression threatens the very existence of Ukrainian statehood. One of the key directions of making Ukraine resilient to threats and challenges is the decentralisation process. It aims at making the government and public administration in Ukraine more democratic, transparent and efficient, open to public concerns and the needs and expectations of local communities. The article proposes analytical approaches towards the decentralisation process taking into account the imperative of democratisation and security challenges that Ukraine has been dealing with. The authors consider both dimensions of the national regional policy and self-government reforms, proposing a balanced vision on their advantages and disadvantages, as well as pointing out key problems that should be attended by the government. The process of decentralisation means a lot for Ukraine to make its statehood stronger and more secure vis-a-vis threats the country is facing now.
Abstract by the author: Ukraine exhibits two, seemingly contradictory, attitudes towards the International Criminal Court (ICC). On the one hand, it lodged two ad hoc declarations, accepting the ICC’s jurisdiction over certain alleged crimes occurring on its territory since late 2013; on the other hand, the desirability of ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court remains an open question. This problem is exacerbated by the highly contested information environment, as well as by the widespread misunderstanding of the ICC, its functioning, and its likely impact on events in Ukraine. The present article examines the heated debate between national stakeholders from the vantage point of post-truth politics. It also explains how the government can use the status quo to keep prospective international investigations and prosecutions under control.
Abstract by the authors: The article examines areas of combating corruption in Ukraine, as a country with a high level of corruption, and some other countries with successful experience in combating corruption crimes. The article highlights features of state policy and criminal legal means of combating corruption crimes in Ukraine. The shortcoming of the state policy in the field of overcoming corruption were revealed, among which is the fact that Ukraine does not meet the requirements of international instruments for interaction between government and the public. The mechanism of counteraction to corruption in Ukraine is defined and the reasons of high level of corruption in Ukraine are revealed. The international experience in the fight against corruption crimes has been studied in order to identify and borrow effective experience in combating corruption. The experience of countries with a low level of corruption shows that the system of measures to prevent corruption should be based on the principles of legality, publicity, transparency, inevitability of punishment of perpetrators of corruption crimes. Based on foreign experience, recommendations for improving the anticorruption mechanism in Ukraine.
Abstract by the author: Blessed by its geology but a prisoner of its geography, the inhabitants of Ukraine have suffered repeated destructive depopulation. The population loss in the Ukraine 1914–21 was over five million. The second modern depopulation culminated in 1932 during Stalin’s manmade famine, with estimated total population losses of 4.6 million people. A third depopulation followed as over 7 million Ukrainians lost their lives in the Second World War. Between the censuses of 1959 and 1970 population of Ukraine recovered briskly. Total fertility remained at about replacement level until the end of the Soviet Union, then declined. A relatively strong recovery of fertility was reversed in 2012, presumably as a consequence of the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine, and total fertility dropped to 1.2. The population in early 2022 was around 37 million. The Ukrainian global diaspora is one of the most widely-distributed populations in the world, with 6.1 million Ukrainians living abroad already in 2020. After Russia’s invasion in February 2022 thousands have died and millions have been forced to flee. The article ends by considering how Ukraine’s demographic situation might evolve in the future. This issue of the Yearbook was finalised after Russia attacked Ukraine the 24th of February, 2022. In this invited reflection, professor David Coleman provides an overview of Ukraine’s demographic history and previous challenges.
Abstract by the author: Many words have been used to name and describe the Great Ukrainian Famine of 1932-33, including "famine" and "catastrophe," "the Holodomor," and now "genocide." Was the famine genocide? Was the famine part of a genocide? Is the word genocide an exaggeration? Is naming the famine a genocide part of an attempt to dramatize events for political purposes today? Is the refusal to call the famine a genocide an act of genocide denial? This article argues that, though more than seven decades have passed and the Soviet Union has come and gone, questions about genocide in Ukraine remain intertwined in the discourses and narratives surrounding conflicts over Ukraine's economic, political, social, and cultural position between the European Union and the Russian Federation. Given the implications of this word--"genocide"--within the context of current conflicts over Ukrainian history and identity and even sovereignty, it is important to reflect on how this concept has been used and applied. This paper analyzes conflict in Ukraine in the 1930s using Raphaël Lemkin's definition of genocide, as opposed to the legal definition established by the UN Genocide Convention, and discusses the conceptual strengths of Lemkin's definition of genocide in terms of understanding a wide spectrum of oppressive, repressive, and violent processes of empire-building and colonization that occurred in Ukraine, and which culminated in the Holodomor.
Abstract by the author: Im August begeht die Ukraine den 30. Jahrestag ihrer Unabhängigkeit. Vor dem Hintergrund des Putsches von Teilen der Führung der noch existierenden Sowjetunion gegen die Reformbestrebungen Michail Gorbatschows zur Erneuerung des gemeinsamen Unionsstaates erklärten die Deputierten des Obersten Sowjets der Ukrainischen SSR am 24. August 1991 die Unabhängigkeit der Ukraine.
Abstract by the authors: This paper examines the re-emergence of the memory of the First World War in Russia and Ukraine during the post-Soviet period. It shows what kind of interpretations of the war the governments of these countries have put forward in order to establish new commemorative traditions. It examines the role of non-state actors in the revival of the memory of the war. The article demonstrates that despite sharp differences in attitudes towards the imperial heritage, both countries have structural similarities in their commemoration strategies and they are commensurable to those that developed in Western European countries right after the Great War.
Abstract by the author: This essay critically examines how the militarization of childhood(s) takes place in the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. The intensification of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine in mid-2014 has had a profound impact on local populations, particularly children. While no systematic recruitment and participation of children in conflict has been reported, childhood has become what Agathangelou and Killian would characterize as a ‘site for displacement and maneuvering for militarization.’ Drawing on feminist methodologies, I examine processes of the militarization of children’s everyday lives. This article investigates a range of ways in which authorities of proto-states in the Donbas region address children as participants and potential collaborators in the processes of militarization. In my analysis, I examine how war and preparation for it are simultaneously co-constituted by the geopolitical—legitimation of new proto-states—and everyday practices, such as engaging with school curricula, visiting museums, and (re)inventing historical narratives. Understanding of mechanisms that militarize childhood and how children become subjects and objects of militarization allows for a critical analysis that reveals spaces of everyday violence. This article, therefore, enhances our understanding about the intersections of childhood, militarism, and security.
Abstract by the author: Contrary to Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical arguments, there was little chance that a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would benefit Russia’s position in the European balance of power and enhance its overall security. Instead, I argue that Putin’s decision was based on domestic interests, mainly the regime’s legitimation, a major pillar of authoritarian stability. Using a multi-method research design, I demonstrate that the war has significant potential to boost Putin’s popularity, nationalism and authoritarian preferences in society, as well as to strengthen his image as the country’s heroic protector. As in several autocracies, the instrumentalization of security concerns and existential threats are a powerful source of regime cohesion. These arguments are corroborated by data from Russia’s current and previous conflicts, such as elites’ discourse, analysis of repressive policies, and public opinion polls on Putin’s rule and authoritarian preferences. The regime needs a hostile ‘West’ and a threatening Ukraine for self-legitimation.
Abstract by the author: This article belongs to the special cluster “Here to Stay: The Politics of History in Eastern Europe”, guest-edited by Félix Krawatzek & George Soroka. The rise of historical memory, which began in the 1970s and 1980s, has made the past an increasingly important soft-power resource. At its initial stage, the rise of memory contributed to the decay of self-congratulatory national narratives and to the formation of a “cosmopolitan” memory centered on the Holocaust and other crimes against humanity and informed by the notion of state repentance for the wrongdoings of the past. Laws criminalizing the denial of these crimes, which were adopted in “old” continental democracies in the 1980s and 1990s, were a characteristic expression of this democratic culture of memory. However, with the rise of national populism and the formation of the authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, and Poland in the 2000s and 2010s, the politics of memory has taken a significantly different turn. National populists are remarkably persistent in whitewashing their countries’ history and using it to promote nationalist mobilization. This process has manifested itself in the formation of new types of memory laws, which shift the blame for historical injustices to other countries (the 1998 Polish, the 2000 Czech, the 2010 Lithuanian, the June 2010 Hungarian, and the 2014 Latvian statutes) and, in some cases, openly protect the memory of the perpetrators of crimes against humanity (the 2005 Turkish, the 2014 Russian, the 2015 Ukrainian, the 2006 and the 2018 Polish enactments). The article examines Russian, Polish, and Ukrainian legislation regarding the past that demonstrates the current linkage between populism and memory.
Abstract by the author: Are the human, social, political, and economic sciences useful for making predictions? They failed to foresee the major subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, while more recently, in February 2022, a number of experts embarrassed themselves by explaining, on the eve of the war in Ukraine, that the invasion would not happen. Making short-term predictions is a very risky exercise.
Abstract by the author: Do the elections and opinion polling help to assess the level of popular support for the policies of Russian president Vladimir Putin, such as the invasion of Ukraine? This essay argues that Russia under Putin represents an instance of plebiscitary democracy, a regime with a strong leader relying on popular legitimacy derived from the passive and disenchanted masses. In such a regime, both elections and polling function according to the principle of acclamation, validating the ready-made decisions rather than revealing the public choice. Historically, plebiscitary democracies tend to engage in unprovoked wars that precipitate their demise. However, the temptations of plebiscitary design for contemporary liberal democracies should not be underestimated.
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