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Western Balkans

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Abstract: This article critically examines the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on European Union (EU) policies pertaining to the Western Balkan states, namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. While the EU has long embraced a normative approach towards the Western Balkan region, the article argues that the Union is undergoing a profound shift towards a more geostrategic and geopolitical policy orientation. By employing an extensive analysis of the existing literature and first-hand data, this article makes a valuable contribution to the academic debates surrounding the EU’s enlargement policy (EEP), particularly focusing on its inherent limitations as a normative power. The findings reveal significant inconsistencies within the EU’s treatment of individual Western Balkan countries, with notable concessions being disproportionately granted to Serbia at the expense of the Union’s credibility. It exacerbates the pressure faced by the Western Balkan region, consequently providing fertile ground for Russia to exploit and amplify its illiberal influence in the area.

Abstract: This article analyses the impact of the European integration process on the Western Balkans; which process is assumed not only as an instrument for economic convergence and growth but additionally as an instrument for peace, security, and political reconciliation of the region. In addition, the article analyses regional integration, namely the transformation of the Regional Economic Area to the Common Regional Market in the Western Balkans. Regional integration in the Western Balkans is characterized by political obstacles, long-lasting transitions, and institutional and trade disputes among the participating countries. In the framework of the Berlin Process, the European Union introduced Common Regional Market as a new instrument to be implemented in the Western Balkans from 2021 to 2024. Besides Western Balkans limited implementing capacities, the European Union shows limited absorption capacity due to critical developments such as BREXIT and the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, there are two assumptions regarding the Common Regional Market; the first assumption is that, the Common Regional Market deepens integration among the Western Balkans; second, the Common Regional Market was launched due to a lack of concrete plans for the European Union enlargement towards the Western Balkans. This article examines whether the European Union enlargement process is affected by limited European Union absorption capacities, in which scenario the Common Regional Market serves primarily as a time–winning strategy. Or if the European Union enlargement process is affected by limited Western Balkans absorption capacities, in which case, these countries should increase their political stability, economic cooperation, and regional integration.

Abstract: Globalization, as a process of world market integration, offers the possibility of economic growth. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to determine the long-term and short-term effects of economic, social, and political globalization on economic growth within Western Balkan countries transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. Annual data from 1998 to 2020 were analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL). The results showed a significant positive effect of economic and political dimensions of globalization on economic growth in the short run, while social globalization has no significant effect. The results also revealed a significant negative effect of political globalization and a significant positive effect of social globalization on economic growth in the long run, while there is no significant effect of economic globalization. The reasons for the different impacts of economic globalization should be sought in the fact that middle-income countries in their development path often fall into the "middle-income trap". To achieve the long-term effects of economic globalization on the economic growth of the Western Balkans, the governments of these countries and economic policymakers need to promote international trade and attract foreign direct investment. Also, Western Balkan countries have to build a better institutional framework which can motivate larger foreign investment inflow (especially greenfield investment), and which could make starting a business easier. For the Western Balkan area is very important and cooperation between countries can improve managing with globalization effects.

Abstract:  The European Union (EU) is the dominant political and economic influence in the Western Balkan (WB) region, but in the view of many of the region's citizens, EU integration is associated with strict and painful convergence criteria and burdensome reforms as well as the inertia of unfulfilled accession requirements. China's involvement in the region is focused mainly on much-needed but controversial infrastructure investments; accordingly, it has attracted increasing international attention over the past decade. At the same time, Turkey, the Arab States, and Russia have also shown heightened interest in the region. This paper addresses the important geopolitical question of whether a mutually-beneficial relationship for all participants is possible.

Abstract: Driven by stability and security concerns stemming from the recent past, the European Union (EU) has decided to include the Western Balkans (WB) in its enlargement process. in the meantime, the United States of America (USA), Russia, and Turkey have become engaged in promoting the need for balance of power in the region, although their interests have been mutually conflicting. in fact, the USA has supported the policies of the EU towards the WB to consolidate Euro-Atlantic integration and to maintain its authority as a superpower on the eastern side of the Atlantic. Another major power, Russia, has sought to counterbalance both the EU and the USA in the region by leveraging its close relations with Serbia. On the other hand, a neighboring country in the region, Turkey, has adopted the policy of soft power and good neighborly policy towards the WB to strengthen relations with old partners, based on perception of shared culture, heritage and history. This article analyzes the diverging national interests of the USA, Russia, and Turkey in the context of the Normative Power Europe approach pertaining to the WB.

Abstract: This paper deals with new developments in the EU integration of Serbia after the Russian fully-fledged invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. It attempts to analyse the contextual setting and efficiency of sanctions pressuring by the EU directed at Serbia. The key leading question regards the extent of the efficiency of conditionality in cases sensitive to national identity. The research comes up with a comparative analysis and juxtaposes the case of sanctions pressuring with conditionality regarding cooperation with the ICTY and normalisation of relations between Belgrade and Pristina within the Brussels Agreement. This study is based on empirical research and 22 interviews conducted during fieldwork in Belgrade (March–April 2023) and Brussels (May 2023), involving the perspectives of NGOs, experts, academics, and representatives of governmental and EU institutions.

Abstract: At its 30th anniversary, the Maastricht Treaty remains a milestone in the history and practice of the European Union. This referring to the adhesion process, since the set of conditions that a country must accomplish have been settled and derived by the treaty, but also for the fact that now, after 20 years of entering in force, the Euro, the Union currency, has performed and faced different consecutive challenges, thus becoming observable concerning it effects and role, and as a consequence, its theoretical and practical validity.But there is yet a vast area, in the center of Europe, that is still dragging on its calvary of adhesion, that of the Western Balkans. At this point, considering the processes that the countries of this area have been going through, by pursuing the adhesion path, the analysis of the dominating factors that have determined the trajectory of their EU membership, becomes essential.The paper questions and analyses the validity of the Maastricht Treaty and subsequent criteria for the adhesion of the Western Balkan countries, as well as highlights on the ‘ad-hoc’ criteria and evaluations often applied during the process and their consequences in terms of the attitudes of the Balkan populations and their determination toward the EU and the Western Balkans adhesion.

Abstract: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia have committed to becoming European Union (EU) member states. This, among others, implies that candidate/potential candidate states adopt legally authorized EU policies, including health. The study aims to identify the main country-specific health policy areas critical to the EU accession health policy dimension and present the change in associated selected health indicators from 2000 to 2019. The study draws on published reports and analyses of official statistics over time and cross-country. Health care policy adherence to the European Commission's recommended country-specific health actions was classified into five health policy areas: financing, payment, organization, regulation and persuasion. Key health policy areas for Western Balkan countries (WBCs) were identified. Health progress or lack thereof in catching up to the EU15 population health, health expenditure and the number of health professionals are measured. The European Commission prioritized financing and regulation for all WBCs in the five policy areas. Nine of the 18 analyzed selected health indicators showed divergence, and the other nine converged towards the EU15 averages. WBCs continue to face diverse public health challenges in improving life expectancy at birth, death rates caused by circulatory system diseases, malignant neoplasms, traffic accidents, psychoactive substance use, tuberculosis incidence, tobacco smoking prevalence and public-sector health expenditure. By 2019, there is limited evidence of WBCs catching up to the average EU15 health levels and health care policies. Closer attention towards EU health and health care policies would be favourable.

Publisher's note: After the fall of the communist regime in Eastern and Central Europe, a new geopolitical context was created on the European continent and beyond. These changes had important implications for the security and foreign policy dimension of the EU. The political turmoil that erupted in the former communist countries in the early ‘90s and especially the wars in the former Yugoslavia that began in 1991 highlighted the EU's lack of capabilities to respond to crisis management situations either in its own backyard or in other parts of the world. This was reaffirmed during the Kosovo war in 1998-99, where the EU failed to play any major role in resolving the conflict. Because of changes in the geopolitical landscape in its neighborhood and beyond, the EU began to increase its efforts to empower the foreign and security policy. In this regard, the European Union Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX) - which is the subject of study in this paper - is of great significance. This is because EULEX is the largest civilian mission ever launched under Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union, and is therefore an important exam through which the EU's capabilities in implementing these policies on the ground are tested. Analytical discussion takes place through a mixed methodology where both qualitative and quantitative methods are combined. The study highlights that the EULEX mission has faced significant challenges in terms of efficiency and public image, concluding that the lessons learned from the EULEX mission’s work will serve as a valuable experience that can help the EU in its efforts to strengthen the Common Security and Defense Policy further.

Publisher's note: The European Union’s enlargement policy aims to promote peace, stability and socio-economic development in the six countries of the Western Balkans by granting the prospect of accession. While enlargement fatigue or skepticism can be observed among the member states of the European Union, chiefly due to clear democratic deficits and resistance to reform in the candidate countries, in most of the target countries the approval rates for EU membership are continuously decreasing because the time horizons are being pushed further and further into the future. The article not only discusses the problems of enlargement policy but also refers to the different geostrategic interests of the EU, the USA, Russia and China.

Publisher's note: This article evaluates public perceptions of the European Union (EU) in Montenegro and Serbia as the front running EU membership candidates. It uses a multidisciplinary approach, which comprises a comparative survey data analysis method, the Image Theory and a mind-mapping approach of EU perceptions analysis to study the EU-Western Balkans relations. Public perceptions of the EU in the Western Balkans are (re)created and juxtaposed against perceptions of other external actors, notably Russia and China. This has led to the EU’s ‘power of attraction’ being diminished in the Western Balkans. Rival perceptions of China and Russia as ‘less demanding’ partners than the EU, and the slowing down of EU’s enlargement agenda have also contributed to this trend. In order to maximize its own security and counter the growing geopolitical influence by China and Russia in the Western Balkans, the EU would benefit from a more comprehensive study of its own representation and public perceptions in candidate states. By doing so, the EU could improve the knowledge about its soft power, which can in turn increase the effectiveness of its foreign policy programmes globally and democracy promotion in the neighbourhood.

Abstract: This article examines Serbia’s approach to European integration and relations with Russia and its implications for its internal and foreign policy. Serbia’s policy is characterized as a “small state” foreign policy designed to maintain good relations with the EU and Russia, believing that this will help it overcome internal and international challenges. In light of the tense relations between the West and Russia, the article examines how this policy has developed over the last two decades and whether it is sustainable in changed international circumstances. It focuses on the fact that Serbia’s approach toward the EU and Russia has shown continuity despite the growing polarization at the international level caused by the crisis in Ukraine in 2014. However, due to the rapid and dramatic deterioration of EU-Russia relations caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Serbia’s current policy has become very difficult to maintain. Serbia’s pragmatic policy, shaped by internal and foreign political interests and guided by a series of economic, legal, and security arguments, was put to the test. These arguments have emerged as new key trends in Serbia and can be traced through the state’s response to the war in Ukraine and the EU and Russia’s responses to the country’s policy. Serbia found itself under pressure from both sides to choose one side over the other, which causes tension and uncertainty and put the country in a difficult position. This article shows that despite the pressure and expectations of both sides, there was no drastic change in Serbia’s policy towards the EU or Russia. However, the fact is that there is less space for the fulfillment of the country’s foreign policy priorities, which now seem mutually incompatible. Therefore, in a broader sense, this article calls into question the sustainability of Serbia’s current foreign policy as a framework for preserving the strategic and national interests of the country.

Abstract: The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of social and economic life in the Western Balkan (WB) countries. However, it faces challenges of slow productivity growth, limited access to assets, and vulnerability to external shocks like climate change. Agricultural policies are crucial to enhance productivity, efficiency, and standards compliance in the European Union (EU) integration context. In this context, WB countries have been developing institutional frameworks while steadily increasing budgetary transfers to agriculture and rural development. The paper enables a comparative analysis of the agriculture and rural development support policy in Albania and North Macedonia with focus on main trends and reasons for potential shortcomings in relation to the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Efforts to enhance policy frameworks, institutional capacities, and agricultural productivity will be critical in achieving alignment and fulfilling the aspirations of EU accession.

Abstract: This article examines the complexities of Montenegro’s ongoing political crisis, revealing the complex relationship of political actors and the Serbian Orthodox Church, and their influence on the formation and collapse of successive governments since the fall of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). In the recent presidential elections, President Đukanović, leader of the long-dominant DPS, faced a decisive defeat against Jakov Milatović of the new political party Europe Now which indicated a major shift in public sentiment. Đukanović stepping down from his position as the leader of DPS further signaled a potential transformation in Montenegro’s political dynamics. Consequently, the results of the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for 11 June 2023, will have significant implications for Montenegro’s European integration process, regional stability, and its role in the NATO alliance. The analysis sheds light on the dynamics of Montenegro’s political landscape by discussing the challenges posed by the rapid rise of populist parties and the potential consequences of their economic policies on the country’s financial stability. It explores the upcoming parliamentary elections as critical junctures that may determine Montenegro’s future trajectory – either returning to the Western political orbit and solidifying its EU membership or becoming an unstable link in the NATO alliance.

Abstract: This research aims to assess the most significant and potentially lasting effects of the Ukrainian crisis on the structure, volume, and directions of Western Balkans international trade. The analysis refers only to trade with Russia and the European Union (EU) as the only trade directions sensitive to disruptions due to the Ukrainian crisis. The research questions are: 1. What are the effects of the Ukrainian crisis on the trade of the Western Balkan (WB) countries with Russia? and 2. Which industries in the WB are at risk of weakening, and which have a chance to develop and increase exports due to disturbances in the EU economies? To prove the hypotheses, an analysis of statistical data on changes in trade in key commodities (index of change) in the most important export products for each WB country was used, as well as an analysis of static data on energy prices, producer prices in the EU, and other data. The results showed that the trade of all WBs except Serbia with Russia declined during 2022. This is a long-term problem for the trade of only a few economic sectors, such as the export of pharmaceutical products from Bosnia & Herzegovina (B&H), stone from Montenegro, and wheat from Albania. In contrast, trade with the EU is changing significantly, as this crucial partner is undergoing a process of accelerated deindustrialisation. The effects of these changes are mixed. Smaller advantages for Serbia, B&H, and North Macedonia in a few sectors may arise from taking over abandoned production in the EU. Whether or not the EU industry’s decline continues at its current rate, these minor advantages may be permanent. But if the shutdown of production extends to the higher industrial sectors, this will directly affect a considerable part of the industrial exports of the WB countries, especially Serbia.

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