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Abstract: European regulatory co-operation has become essential for the smooth operation of the single market, and this in turn requires trust. In the case of the European Union (EU) ‘Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities’ (UCITS) Directive, for example, the member states' financial supervisory authorities rely on each other to provide a harmonised regime for the sale of investment funds across the EU. Funds authorised in one member state can be sold freely in another member state without further authorisation. The national authorities need to trust each other to ensure a consistent application of EU law. Yet we know very little about how trust matters from the perspective of member state regulators. In this article, we provide a better understanding of the relevant components of trust in the single market in financial services through an in-depth case study of an EU network of national financial market supervisory authorities.
Abstract: The structural gravity model is the workhorse model in international trade to estimate the drivers of trade costs. We propose a new gravity estimation procedure that allows us to disentangle exogenous trade costs and endogenous aggregate markups under oligopoly. Our method can be easily implemented in standard gravity data sets, and we illustrate it by analyzing the competition and welfare effects of the European Single Market. We find that abolishing the European Single Market would increase domestic aggregate markups in EU member countries by 2 to 6 percent. Welfare effects of trade liberalization are larger due to changes in competition among domestic and foreign firms. Our findings highlight that evaluations of trade policy changes and trade cost reductions should also consider their effects on competition.
Abstract: The nature of global economic interactions is undergoing profound changes. Rising concerns over the security and strategic implications of economic interdependence are leading to what is often defined as a ‘geoeconomic world order’. In framing this Special Issue, this article sets a common conceptual ground to assess whether, how and why the single European market is experiencing such a geoeconomic turn and how EU responses are shaping other international actors in the process. It develops a research agenda to examine (i) the systemic pressures pushing towards geoeconomic responses, (ii) the internal drivers and processes determining the nature of the EU's geoeconomic turn (what we term ‘shades of geopoliticisation’) and (iii) the external consequences of the EU's embrace of geoeconomics. The analytical discussion is complemented by an overview of empirical trends, drawing examples from the various fields of market integration and European policy‐making covered in the contributions to this Special Issue.
Abstract: Using firm-level export and import transactions and by applying an event study methodology, we quantify the impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union on Spain–UK trade flows. We find that Spanish exports and imports to the UK decreased by 24% and 27%, respectively, compared to the period before the Brexit referendum. The probability of Spanish exporters and importers starting a trade relationship with the UK decreased and the probability of ending one increased. Products subject to sanitary and phytosanitary measures, stringent rules of origin, and whose technical standards had not been harmonized before disintegration experienced a stronger decline in trade flows. Large firms faced a more severe decrease in exports than small ones after disintegration.
Résumé: Après des décennies de mondialisation sinon heureuse, du moins sans heurts majeurs, une série de crises est venue bouleverser la donne : pandémie de Covid, guerre en Ukraine, conflit israélo-palestinien, tensions entre la Chine et les États-Unis… Dans ce contexte bouleversé, les États européens ont éprouvé les limites de leur dépendance extérieure dans un certain nombre de domaines (médicaments, technologies, minerais, céréales…) et pris une série de mesures politiques visant à recouvrer une part de leur souveraineté, en particulier dans certains secteurs jugés stratégiques. Alors qu’au moment où paraît ce numéro, une nouvelle Commission se met en place à la tête de l’Union européenne, que peut-on dire de la stratégie de sécurité économique européenne actuelle ? Existe-t-il une doctrine claire et consensuelle sur la manière de se protéger contre les risques stratégiques ? Comment l’Union se positionne-t-elle face aux leaders mondiaux que sont les États-Unis et la Chine, dont les gouvernements soutiennent fortement leurs entreprises nationales et adoptent des réglementations commerciales de plus en plus protectrices — sinon protectionnistes ? Serait-elle en mesure de faire face à un afflux de biens chinois si Pékin réorientait sa stratégie commerciale sur le continent européen sous l’effet des lois américaines ? Ce sont ces questions déterminantes pour l’avenir des Européens qu’Elvire Fabry examine ici, montrant aussi comment l’Union européenne fait face à la situation, en adoptant une stratégie défensive en matière économique et commerciale. Mais la meilleure défense restant souvent l’attaque, elle incite les nouvelles instances européennes à aller plus loin et à déployer une stratégie offensive afin de relancer et protéger l’économie de l’Union, en profitant notamment de l’attractivité de son Marché unique.
Abstract: The study of European integration has traditionally focused "inside-in" on the internal development of common laws and policies. With the maturing of the Single Market and the evolution of EU external relations, attention has shifted beyond the EU to the ways in which the EU intentionally and unintentionally projects its norms beyond its borders - the "inside-out" dynamics of European integration. This panel explores a step further in the research on EU integration: the reverse influence of third countries on EU laws and policies.The inside-out movement was reflected in the processes of EU enlargements; the intensification of association relations with western, southern and eastern neighbouring countries which, either willingly or unwillingly, did not join the EU; and the development of EU actorness in trade, foreign and security relations. Three decades later, association relations with the EEA/EFTA countries, Switzerland, the countries of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), and other privileged trade partners have tightened mutual political, administrative, and legal links between the EU and the countries in its neighbourhood. The participation of third countries in the EU’s structures, programmes and policies, and their adoption of EU norms is increasingly studied alongside the EU's internal differentiation under the notion of external differentiated integration. The UK's withdrawal from EU membership has moved the country into this category of deeply interdependent third countries, giving new urgency to the search for sustainable arrangements that foster association while preserving the autonomy of both parties. An increasingly challenging geopolitical context including Russia's war against Ukraine, new East-West antagonisms as well as mounting transnational challenges such as the fight against climate change, migration policy, and energy supply have added to the importance of finding flexible solutions to sustain partnerships with associated countries.This conjuncture of consolidating ties and sharing external challenges warrants the opening up of EU-studies towards greater attention to factors that influence the process of European integration beyond the EU and its member states. The Special Issue explores third country influence from the perspective of differentiated integration. It discusses the levels at and venues through which third countries can exert influence, and the legal and the legal constraints and political implications of these processes.
Abstract: This paper draws on the methods of analysis and synthesis to study the regulatory framework governing the modern operating mechanism of the EU single market. Statistical analysis made it possible to reflect the market dynamics with reference to the pre‐ and post‐COVID crisis periods. Consolidation was applied to merge data on the trade of goods and services – the key elements of the EU Member States' trade indicators. Finally, the method of comparative analysis was employed to compare the single market environment of the EU with markets of other countries. The functioning of the single market depends on shared responsibility between the EU's centralized management and the many policies of its Member States. There are barriers within the single market system that limit the free movement of goods, services, people and capital and lead to an imbalance. These are sanitary and phytosanitary standards, tariff measures, and technical and quantitative barriers.
Résumé: Cette chronique couvre la période allant de mars 2022 à mars 2023. Cette période est marquée par la fin de la crise Covid et la guerre en Ukraine. Ces deux crises majeures ont en commun de souligner les conséquences désastreuses d'une trop grande dépendance de l'Union européenne à l'égard d'États tiers, tout particulièrement de la Chine et de la Russie. La réorganisation politique qui s'ensuit est majeure et secoue toutes les politiques de l'UE, sans mettre en cause pour autant la double transition climatique et numérique. Ces bouleversements se traduisent par la fin de la prétendue « naïveté » de l'UE dans la mondialisation et la conduisent à protéger ses secteurs stratégiques pour réduire ses vulnérabilités.
Abstract: Over the past 20 years, Europe has deregulated many industries, protected consumer welfare, and created strongly independent regulators. These policies represent a stark departure from historical traditions in continental Europe. How and why did this turnaround happen? We build a political economy model of market regulation and we compare the design of national and supra-national regulators. We show that countries in a single market willingly promote a supranational regulator that enforces free markets beyond the preferences of any individual country. We test and confirm the predictions of the model. European institutions are indeed more independent and enforce competition more strongly than any individual country ever did. Countries with ex-ante weaker institutions benefit more from the delegation of competition policy to the EU level.
Abstract: The European Single Market created a common market for millions of Europeans. However, 30 years after its introduction, it appears that the benefits of the common European project are occasionally being questioned at least by some parts of the population. Others, by contrast, strive for deeper integration. Against this background, we empirically gauge the growth effect that arose from the Single Market. Using the synthetic control method, we establish the growth premium for the Single Market overall and for its founding members. Broadly in line with the predictions made by Richard Baldwin at the onset of the Single Market project, we find significantly higher real GDP per capita for the overall Single Market area of around 12–22 %. In comparison, smaller EU Member States seem to have benefited somewhat more compared to larger countries. The estimated growth effects underline the case for further deepening and broadening the Single Market where possible.
Résumé: Cette chronique couvre la période allant de mars 2020 à mars 2021. Dans la chronique de l'année 2020, nous avions choisi d'intituler l'analyse : « Se réapproprier les frontières dans le marché intérieur ». Cette nouvelle période confirme que l'intégration se fait avec des frontières nationales dans un espace que la Commission européenne qualifie, en mars 2021, de carte maîtresse qu'il importe de sécuriser « en garantissant une autonomie stratégique ouverte et en accélérant les transitions écologique et numérique sur tout le territoire de l'Union ». Le marché intérieur redevient de ce fait une politique à part entière et plus seulement un acquis technique de l'intégration, comme on l'a pensé un peu vite après l'établissement du marché unique en 1993. Ce changement nous conduit à présenter de nombreuses communications, lignes directrices et autres vadémécums, pour dessiner, dans cette chronique, les nouvelles orientations de la politique du marché intérieur.
Abstract: The creation of European Union (EU) was driven by the motivation to create a European Common Market that encourages free trade. As a result of Maastricht treaty of 1993, EU saw the biggest enlargement to date, from initial six founding members to now 28‐member countries comprising the union. The lower income countries have joined the EU with the hope to bridge the income gap between them and the higher income countries of the union. It has been observed in many studies that intra‐EU income convergence has happened. This article further confirms this finding. For income convergence to be sustainable, the lower income countries must also experience convergence in economic structures. Therefore, in this paper we try to assess how intra‐EU convergence in incomes is linked to intra‐EU convergence in economic structures. We observed income convergence in the EU has been mainly due to convergence in income shares of the industrial and services sector. The main contribution of this article is to examine the role of trade in income convergence via its impact on structural transformation of the EU. Using the augmented Chenery‐Syrquin model in a panel data framework, we have found that trade openness determines the sectoral shares of industry and services in income across the countries. We have also demonstrated that both the higher and lower income countries within the EU have gained in the share of industrial sector due to trade, although the gain is lesser for the lower income countries as compared to the gain in share of industries of the high‐income countries in the EU. However, structural convergence has not been fully achieved because the lower income countries of the EU are yet to gain from trade in terms of enhancing their income shares of services.
Abstract: Recently, studies with diferent methods (computable general equilibrium models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, structural gravity equations) evaluated the European Union’s Single Market. The problem with all these studies is that they use complex models with datasets that are not always replicable. This paper demonstrates that even a simple model of the European Union can capture the most important effects of European economic integration: the European Union’s Single Market, the introduction of the Euro, and the following European Union enlargements. A simple European Union model, built with the publicly available program, EViews, serves this purpose. The dataset is also freely available from the European Commission. This makes the model results replicable. Evaluation of Austrian membership in the European Union is in the foreground of the analysis with the simple European Union model, followed by the next steps of integration, such as the introduction of the Euro and the big European Union enlargements. However, this prototype model is also able to estimate the integration effects of other European Union member states.
Abstract: We propose novel estimates of the economic consequences of undoing European goods and services markets integration. Using a quantitative multi-country, multi-sector trade model, we disentangle two important layers of complexity: First, European integration is governed by various, partly overlapping arrangements — the Customs Union, the Single Market, the Common Currency, the Schengen Area, free trade agreements — and fiscal transfers, all of which affect production, trade, and income differently. Second, decades of integration have led to dense cross-border input–output (IO) networks, which endogenously adjust to trade cost shocks. Based on our preferred gravity estimates, we find disintegration to trigger statistically significant welfare losses of up to 23%. In a conservative specification, effects are about half the size. Robustly, the Single Market dominates quantitatively, but the losses from dissolving the Schengen Area are substantial, too. Compared to a model variant without IO linkages, our complex model predicts significantly larger aggregate losses.
Abstract: One of the pillars of the 1957 Treaty of Rome that ultimately led to the European Union is the commitment to the four freedoms of movement (goods, services, persons, and capital). Over the following decades, as the members expanded in numbers, they also sought to deepen the integration amongst themselves in all four dimensions. This paper estimates the success of these policies based primarily on a gravity framework. Distinct from past evaluations, we augment the traditional equation for international flows with the corresponding intra-national flows, permitting us to distinguish welfare-improving reductions in frictions from Fortress-Europe effects. We complement the gravity approach by measuring the extent of price convergence. We compare both quantity and price assessments of free movement with corresponding estimates for the 50 American states.
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