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Global Food Security

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Abstract: This study aims to provide empirical evidence on whether using renewable and non-renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and the resulting changes in temperature and precipitation can alter cereal yields in European Union countries. To this end, a panel data set covering 1992–2021 has been used to analyse the impact of climate change and economic factors on cereal production in European Union countries. The study employed various analytical techniques to better understand the impact of climate change and economic factors on cereal crop yields. These included using annual average temperature and rainfall to measure climate change, energy consumption, and economic growth to analyse the economic aspects. To achieve the objective, feasible generalised least squares (FGLS) models with robust standard errors and bootstrap and a quantile regression (QR) model with marginal analysis were employed. The Westerlund cointegration test confirmed the presence of cointegration between cereal production and climate variables, economic growth, and energy consumption. The results indicate that increases in temperature and precipitation may contribute to increased cereal production in European Union countries. In contrast, energy consumption, including renewable energy and CO2 emissions, may have a nonlinear effect on cereal production. Quantile regression analysis suggests climate change may impact crop yields most in countries with low and moderate cereal production per hectare. Increased CO2 emissions may increase yields in the initial period, but excessive CO2 may negatively impact cereal production in the long term. It would be advisable for countries with low and moderate crop productivity to consider implementing technological advances and combating global warming by modernising cultivation methods and making greater use of renewable energy sources.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical instability in Europe call for coordinated efforts from scientists, farmers, producers, and consumers to ensure food security.Recent progress in molecular biology and biotechnology creates hope for the future. Using genetic engineering techniques, scientists continue to improve crops, aiming to diminish the losses caused by biotic and abiotic stresses and to increase yield.There is an urgent need for communication between scientists and society based on reliable scientific knowledge, as is appropriate legislation. Of late, global food security has been under threat by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the recent military conflict in Eastern Europe. This article presents the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals and the European Green Deal related to achieving food security and sustainable development in European Union (EU) agriculture, taking the aforementioned threats into account. In addition, it discusses the future of plant agricultural biotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) systems, considering their potential for reaching the goal of food security. Paradoxically, the present challenging situation may allow politicians and stakeholders of the EU to realize opportunities and use the potential of the biotechnology sector.

Abstract:  The aim of the paper is to provide an ex-post assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in the EU-27 countries expressed by physical and economic food access. We analysed trade and price effects, together with food insecurity and malnutrition indicators. Actual levels of the indicators were compared with their pre-pandemic magnitudes and/or with counterfactual levels derived from predictive models. We also aimed to compare the objective statistics with the subjective consumers' perception of their households' food security. Our research indicates that the EU food trade was more resilient to COVID-19 impacts than the trade in non-food products, while food trade decreases were of a temporary nature. This did not affect the trade balance significantly; however, the import reduction threatened the physical food access in most EU countries. Regarding economic food access, the results indicate that the increase in food prices was offset by the increase in disposable income. It may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly affect the deterioration of economic access to food in the EU countries. However, the prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population or the proportion of households reporting inability to afford a meal with meat, chicken, fish, or a vegetarian equivalent increased in 2020-2021 compared to 2019. This means that the comparative analysis of the real data on prices and households' income, as well as consumer financial situation and food consumption affordability, does not offer a clear answer concerning the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the food security of EU households.

Abstract: Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.  (…)

Abstract: Food‐security implications of the war in Ukraine are exacerbated by adverse weather events, spillover effects from the distortion of energy and fertiliser markets, and domestic policies that countries around the world have implemented in pursuit of food security. Estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of these channels in terms of restricting agricultural and food trade is in the order of over 10 times larger, and their cumulative effect on global food supply is on average three times more substantial than the direct agricultural supply disruptions in Ukraine. The latter, however, disproportionally impacts low‐income countries that are particularly vulnerable to food supply shortages and price increases. In the case of the EU, although overall food availability is not at stake, food affordability for low‐income households is a concern, especially when combined with rising prices of other essential goods, such as energy and transportation. To ensure the resilience of domestic and global food systems, the EU and its Member States should extend a set of already implemented policies, including better‐targeted support for the low‐income households in the region, implementation of trade facilitation measures via international cooperation, and support for agricultural production in the most vulnerable countries, and should also facilitate the restoration of Ukraine's lost agricultural assets.

Abstract: Policies that restrict the use of agricultural inputs have been shown to reduce output, farmers' incomes, and increase food prices, which could ultimately lead to more food insecurity. In this paper, we consider the EU Farm to Fork Strategy's proposed reductions of agricultural inputs on food security in 77 low‐ and middle‐income countries under two implementation scenarios: EU‐only and Global. Our findings indicate that compared with the status quo, each scenario results in a net increase in food insecurity, which ranges from 30 million (EU‐only) to 171 million (Global) by 2030.

Abstract: Food and nutrition security have become increasingly critical concerns for policy makers given that the slow progress on eliminating these challenges has reversed in recent years, with an increase in the number of hungry people by 122 million (20 percent) between 2019 and 2022. In addition to rebuilding in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global food system faces inter-related challenges from climate change, trade disruptions, increasing scarcity of water and land, environmental degradation, and evolving food demand patterns, among other factors. This paper assesses prospects to 2050 for food and nutrition security with a focus on low- and middle-income countries around the world in the context of these broader food system changes. Measures of food security presented here include per capita food and kilocalorie availability, the number and prevalence of hungry people, and micronutrient availability. Projected outcomes are assessed using the latest version of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) framework, a modeling system that combines information from climate models, crop simulation models, and river basin level hydrological and water supply and demand models linked to a global, partial equilibrium, multimarket agriculture sector model

Abstract: Food waste is often mentioned in the context of food security. Meanwhile, the research on the subject of food waste mainly focuses on the ex-post management of the food waste (i.e. the waste that is, mainly through channelling food waste as a bioen-ergy source), rather than on the ex-ante management (i.e. limiting the amount of food waste to-be). Thus, food waste research trends towards energy security, rather than food security. The goal of our research was to identify whether it is a similar case for  the  Polish  research  on  the  topic.  We  have  applied  the  method  of  bibliometric  analysis  using  the  software  RStudio  and  VOSviewer to identify potential keyword overlap and to identify the common points between food waste and food security in Polish publications.

Abstract: This paper analyzes the climatic factors that affected food security in the West African Sahel in 2001–2017. We estimate the impact of droughts and floods on the four dimensions of food security defined by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, based on a panel data model controlling for socioeconomic and political factors. Droughts and floods negatively affect food security with floods causing more damage. Since socioeconomic and political factors, especially conflicts, also play an important role, food security in the West African Sahel cannot be explained only by climatic problems, so that coordinated policies must be based on the four dimensions of food security.

Abstract: •The prevalence of food insecurity across the 83 countries covered by the IFSA is underestimated using a uniform 2100 calorie threshold.•The prevalence of food insecurity is 6.8 percent higher using country-specific caloric thresholds.•When agricultural employment is considered, average energy requirements increase, and the prevalence of food insecurity is 24.8 percent higher.

Abstract: The trend of global warming has sparked a growing concern about the impact of climate change on food security. China is a vast country with different climate situations in each region. This study examines the impact of climate change on food security in China using panel data from 31 provinces and cities (1984–2020). Results show that climate change significantly affects food security, bringing more uncertainty risks. Agricultural policies can mitigate this impact by reducing production costs and improving farmers' risk resistance and motivation. Regional heterogeneity exists, with climate change having significant moderating effects on food security in non-food-producing regions and rainfall having significant effects in north and central regions. Relevant policy implications are suggested for strengthening climate change resilience, improving system design, and coordinating regional agricultural production.

Abstract: Food security is a basic component of human security and consists in ensuring the food resources necessary for the survival of the population. Food security can be affected both by natural phenomena such as drought, floods, natural disasters, earthquakes and landslides, but also by human activities. Among human activities, armed conflicts have the greatest impact on food security because the destruction caused makes it impossible to produce food resources and limits the population’s access to food resources produced in another area. The consequences of conflicts on food security are very difficult to identify and manage, because controlling the causes and limiting the effects are, most of the time, beyond the immediate capabilities of the conflicting parties.

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